Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

by **algae888** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:14 am

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 12 Prbww_sn25_f120

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 12 95ep48iwbg_fill

it looks like wpc is going with a more n/w track. also I think the euro may be digging the s/w trough to far south as It typically does. this winter so far nothing has dug as far south as models have shown. I think we see a n/w adjustment and with that maybe precip type issues for some.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:28 am

RJB8525 wrote:With the winds concerned, Jman you'll like this.

I haven't seen it yet but TWC updated to "Snow and wind" for Saturday lol up to this point it was just snow. they are all in for winds all across the broad horizon

Yep last I checked last night 25-35 sustained sat, gusts would be in the 45-60 range that's wild.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:29 am

algae888 wrote:

it looks like wpc is going with a more n/w track. also I think the euro may be digging the s/w trough to far south as It typically does. this winter so far nothing has dug as far south as models have shown. I think we see a n/w adjustment and with that maybe precip type issues for some.

Well if there are not mix issues for us Al that looks like near a solid 1 1/2 to 2 feet for us. But its a sharp cutoff just to our north.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:31 am

If you ever listern to twc, look at their wind part, power out for hundreds of thousands. umm that's a bit extreme to say now but I guess its possible since such a large area.

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/five-things-to-know-east-coast-snowstorm

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:37 am

hopefully not too sharp of a cutoff to the north but i'm not worried about any of that yet nobody should be really

Jedi mind tricks from the computer models

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:44 am

FWIW 12z NAM is more negatively tilted with the trough through 78. Good sign, too bad it's the NAM ahaha

by **Quietace** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:46 am

rb924119 wrote:FWIW 12z NAM is more negatively tilted with the trough through 78. Good sign, too bad it's the NAM ahaha

I feel it is good enough to use when the overall guidance is supporting in nature, similarly to how you can use the DGEX, NAVGEM, and JMA when models are in good agreement. If it is overall similar, I will look at it temp profiles especially.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:47 am

NAM TO THE RESCUE NW TREND AND VORT AT HR 84 NEG TILT AND LOOKING GREAT - BUT ITS THE
NOT
A
MODEL

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:49 am

It's also further north with the H5 closed low by the whole state of Tennessee compared to the Euro lol

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:55 am

I'm feeling at this point pretty confident for my area that this storm Will produce lots of white gold, and wind and coastal flooding going to rival 96

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:56 am

rb924119 wrote:It's also further north with the H5 closed low by the whole state of Tennessee compared to the Euro lol

What do you think our chances stand at now that the area of the heaviest snow around DC VA is shifted into our area? Any chance at all?

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:57 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm feeling at this point pretty confident for my area that this storm Will produce lots of white gold, and wind and coastal flooding going to rival 96

Yep coastal NJ will really feel brunt of both the non snow aspects and snow but it will be a issue all up and down coast even inland, I am only 10 miles or so from NYC so I expect some pretty crazy winds, am also close to Hudson so often winds funnel up from there. Luckily not in a flooding area.

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:59 am

jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm feeling at this point pretty confident for my area that this storm Will produce lots of white gold, and wind and coastal flooding going to rival 96

Yep coastal NJ will really feel brunt of the non snow aspects but it will be a issue all up and down coast even inland, I am only 10 miles or so from NYC so I expect some pretty crazy winds, am also close to Hudson so often winds funnel up from there.

Jman easy with the non snow I have a feeling it's going to deliver. Lol. It may mix but I have worked in storms were it's mixed and we still got hammered

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:03 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:It's also further north with the H5 closed low by the whole state of Tennessee compared to the Euro lol

What do you think our chances stand at now that the area of the heaviest snow around DC VA is shifted into our area? Any chance at all?

If you mean the jackpot zone, then I'd say maybe 20%. I don't think we will be able to keep H5 from closing off over the Mid-Mississippi or Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. I think those areas remain the jackpot. That said, if you mean the chance that higher totals expand into the region, then I'd say 50%. It's really a crapshoot at this point as to which way it could go, but the chance is certainly there lol

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:08 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm feeling at this point pretty confident for my area that this storm Will produce lots of white gold, and wind and coastal flooding going to rival 96

Yep coastal NJ will really feel brunt of the non snow aspects but it will be a issue all up and down coast even inland, I am only 10 miles or so from NYC so I expect some pretty crazy winds, am also close to Hudson so often winds funnel up from there.
Jman easy with the non snow I have a feeling it's going to deliver. Lol. It may mix but I have worked in storms were it's mixed and we still got hammered

That's not what I meant. I meant you will feel the most from the winds and the coastal flooding than other places, u will have no issues with snow. non-snow meaning the wind and coastal flooding.

by Guest Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:09 am

From the NWS early this morning.....

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016

HIGHLIGHTS...

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
MAJOR WINTER STORM INCLUDING HEAVY SNOWS FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR
EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON DC TO NEW YORK AND BOSTON FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW'S ANTICIPATED TRACK AND SWATH OF HIGH LIQUID
EQUIVALENTS SUPPORTING 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-95.
COASTAL FLOODING AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MARINE INTERESTS
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST ARE ALSO LIKELY.

it's coming. It's just a matter of a forecast of 8-12" or a forecast of 18"+. I hope for the latter. Right now it's every model vs the King Euro

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:15 am

syosnow94 wrote:From the NWS early this morning.....

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016

HIGHLIGHTS...

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
MAJOR WINTER STORM INCLUDING HEAVY SNOWS FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR
EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON DC TO NEW YORK AND BOSTON FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW'S ANTICIPATED TRACK AND SWATH OF HIGH LIQUID
EQUIVALENTS SUPPORTING 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-95.
COASTAL FLOODING AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MARINE INTERESTS
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST ARE ALSO LIKELY.

it's coming. It's just a matter of a forecast of 8-12" or a forecast of 18"+. I hope for the latter. Right now it's every model vs the King Euro

Syo I think Euro will revert back to latter runs showing higher amounts. Frank even said last nights 00z run was likely wrong since the control and ensembles are much more. If the control verified OMG, the image is a page or two back if you didn't see it.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:21 am

jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:From the NWS early this morning.....

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016

HIGHLIGHTS...

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
MAJOR WINTER STORM INCLUDING HEAVY SNOWS FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR
EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON DC TO NEW YORK AND BOSTON FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW'S ANTICIPATED TRACK AND SWATH OF HIGH LIQUID
EQUIVALENTS SUPPORTING 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-95.
COASTAL FLOODING AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MARINE INTERESTS
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST ARE ALSO LIKELY.

it's coming. It's just a matter of a forecast of 8-12" or a forecast of 18"+. I hope for the latter. Right now it's every model vs the King Euro

Syo I think Euro will revert back to latter runs showing higher amounts. Frank even said last nights 00z run was likely wrong since the control and ensembles are much more. If the control verified OMG, the image is a page or two back if you didn't see it.

Don't forget the Euro Para showed a huge hit as well. The Para will take over as the "upgraded Euro" in March and run 4 times per day like the GFS.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:22 am

I may be in session for part of 12z runs so if I am not chiming in that's why. I will look as soon as I can.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:22 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:From the NWS early this morning.....

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016

HIGHLIGHTS...

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
MAJOR WINTER STORM INCLUDING HEAVY SNOWS FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR
EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON DC TO NEW YORK AND BOSTON FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW'S ANTICIPATED TRACK AND SWATH OF HIGH LIQUID
EQUIVALENTS SUPPORTING 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-95.
COASTAL FLOODING AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MARINE INTERESTS
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST ARE ALSO LIKELY.

it's coming. It's just a matter of a forecast of 8-12" or a forecast of 18"+. I hope for the latter. Right now it's every model vs the King Euro

Syo I think Euro will revert back to latter runs showing higher amounts. Frank even said last nights 00z run was likely wrong since the control and ensembles are much more. If the control verified OMG, the image is a page or two back if you didn't see it.
Don't forget the Euro Para showed a huge hit as well. The Para will take over as the "upgraded Euro" in March and run 4 times per day like the GFS.

That's awesome more model watching lol

by **amugs** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:24 am

FWIW the 6Z GFS PARA showing 1" qpf TO 1.75 qpf NYC Metro - a solid
12 -18" plus on SV by this as well.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:24 am

I won't be here either Jman lol I'll be on my way home to PA haha Whatever (if any) snow we get there at least I can go out and "play" in it; plow, shovel, etc. Here at my apartment I can't do jack-squat Brick