Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:01 pm

The 12z EPS are out. They are north and west of the OP but south of last night's run. They are about 75 miles further north with the H5 low compared to the OP. Overall, it's about 5-10" of snow for the area on the EURO Ensembles.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:03 pm

This model is as useless as the NAM but it is in the GFS camp. This is the FIM.

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:05 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Wow - EURO and GFS models are in agreement. H5 closes off over TN 18z Friday. Where they differ is the EURO occludes the H5 low once it closes off, while the GFS continues taking it east-northeast. On the EURO, it almost looks as if the western ridge is collapsing on top of the mean vort, while the GFS flattens the ridge and the vort rides the flow. I can't sit here and say which one is right, but doesn't the EURO stalling the H5 low over TN to then track it east-southeast makes less sense than what the GFS does?

I can't get H5 vorticity on my site for the Euro, but I *think* that I might know what the difference is. If you look when the ridge starts to fold over, there is a secondary short wave that actually causes it. Now, seeing as though I can only get H5 heights and not vorticity for the Euro, it looks to me like the Euro is modeling that second shortwave that crashes the top of the ridge over to be much stronger than the GFS. This causes a near wave-break event, but can't quite get there completely. However, it forces enough ridging over top of the trough to keep it suppressed, and doesn't allow it to turn the corner. The GFS on the other hand, has a weaker secondary, which although still works to collapse the peak of the ridge, is not nearly enough to get it to partially roll over the deepening eastern trough. Instead, it just shears whatever energy was there and consolidates it with the rest of the flow. Can you confirm?

Yes, it took me awhile to notice that but I do now. The northern s/w is basically shearing out the NW side of the trough.

I see two differences regarding that Rb and Frank. The second s/w you are referring crashing over the top of the ridge is a tad further east on the euro, but the s/w and trough on the west coast is actually further west; where as on the GFS the s/w riding the ridge is more on the western flank of the ridge, and the trough to its west is much closer to it so they are acting more as one maintaining the ridge. The Euro set up looks like that s/w on the apex of the ridge is acting like a thumb, suppressing the ability for the trough to tilt neg and bring it up; where as the GFS looks like it stays out of the way allowing it tilt to come up.

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01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 21 Ecmwf_50

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01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 21 Gfs_z519

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by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:07 pm

On second look the EPS is much better than the OP. Gets a nice deform band into the area. So...the EPS and OP continue to be at disagreement with one another.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:12 pm

That map is still only about 4 inches for me. I do not know what to think at this point. Which way are you guys thinking any particular way or is it now very much confusion?

by Snowfall Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:13 pm

Weather channel is buying the euro and put nyc in snow showers and wind this might be a trend please no

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:On second look the EPS is much better than the OP. Gets a nice deform band into the area. So...the EPS and OP continue to be at disagreement with one another.

Bro thats a significant shift south, cant tell me you dont see a bad trend today... Just go back to what we were seeing yesterday with a beautiful low tucked right off of NJ, now its way further S and E.

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:16 pm

I suggest everyone walk away from their computers/phones/wireless devices, and take a break. Before you do read the top line in my signature below. Come back for 00z

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:16 pm

Snowfall wrote:Weather channel is buying the euro and put nyc in snow showers and wind this might be a trend please no

They chopped the whole area down too

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:17 pm

This is turning into Dec 2009.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/19-Dec-09.html

by **devsman** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:18 pm

Or this can be like franks writeup discussing what happens days before a storm on here. I think we are at the stage where the EURO loses the storm. It'll be back tomorrow night.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:18 pm

jmanley32 wrote:That map is still only about 4 inches for me. I do not know what to think at this point. Which way are you guys thinking any particular way or is it now very much confusion?

This is the first paragraph in my update from last night:

Let me be clear: I am not yet forecasting a Godzilla snowstorm for the area. Once the banner on my forum changes to "Storm Mode" that is when you know I have full confidence this storm will come to fruition. The reason why I am playing "safe" is because I do not trust the Pacific. If the PAC energy is modeled too strong, or the western ridge is modeled too amplified, that could mean the difference between storm or no storm.

The EURO just showed a classic case of what can go wrong with a bowling ball H5 low and a progressive ridge. It acts as a downstream block and the surface low is not able to turn the corner. We can post GFS, CMC, etc. graphics all day long and get excited, but until the EURO OP joins the party this system has a chance to go OTS or scrape us. The EPS are encouraging at least so we'll see what happens.

Snowfall wrote:Weather channel is buying the euro and put nyc in snow showers and wind this might be a trend please no

Each media outlet has to commit to an official forecast, but I am sure if you watch TWC the Met's are showing both tracks. They don't know either.

by **algae888** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:18 pm

this is the op euro snow map.
01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 21 1pmd1tw

although it looks bad for most of us the 12" line is near sandy hook nj. another 50 mile swing north and most of us are in good shape unless you believed you were getting 2 feet. I am having a hard time believing some one is going to get 3 or more feet of snow esp the dc area that would be a 1 in 500 year solution. trust the ensembles at this point until models get a good crasp of what is going to happen and expect 6" if you get more great and less well what can we do.

by **snow247** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:20 pm

Relax. It's euro vs. the world right now.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:20 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:On second look the EPS is much better than the OP. Gets a nice deform band into the area. So...the EPS and OP continue to be at disagreement with one another.

Bro thats a significant shift south, cant tell me you dont see a bad trend today... Just go back to what we were seeing yesterday with a beautiful low tucked right off of NJ, now its way further S and E.

The only model trending south is the EURO. The OP gives NW NJ 0" of snow, while the EPS gives them 4-6" of snow. That is a big difference.

by Guest Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:21 pm

Rayno says no panic yet. He saw the EURO and even though he believes it's the best model he does not trust it and thinks it corrects north. He says tomorrow is the day to rejoice or jump off the cliff.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:21 pm

Here is the EPS breakdown:

35/51 members have 6"+ for NYC.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:22 pm

Here is a better one

43/51 (~85%) members give at least 2" give or take
34/51 (~66%) members give at least 6" give or take
24/51 (~47%) members give at least 10" give or take

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:23 pm

I am hearing the EURO Control run is 15-20" for the area. This hobby is grueling!

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:23 pm

algae888 wrote:this is the op euro snow map.

although it looks bad for most of us the 12" line is near sandy hook nj. another 50 mile swing north and most of us are in good shape unless you believed you were getting 2 feet. I am having a hard time believing some one is going to get 3 or more feet of snow esp the dc area that would be a 1 in 500 year solution. trust the ensembles at this point until models get a good crasp of what is going to happen and expect 6" if you get more great and less well what can we do.

That map is amazing and been the most consistent for DC area, I think they get their historic storm.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:24 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Rayno says no panic yet. He saw the EURO and even though he believes it's the best model he does not trust it and thinks it corrects north. He says tomorrow is the day to rejoice or jump off the cliff.

Why does he not trust it though? I definitely think it is a feasible solution. We just have to hope the other models are handling the upper energy better.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I am hearing the EURO Control run is 15-20" for the area. This hobby is grueling!

So many diff variations of the Euro and what they all mean in terms of trustability is so confusing. ill check and post in a minute.

by **algae888** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:28 pm

jman dc went from 30" to 15 on the euro from 00z to 12z. model is probably correcting qpf and will probably correct in other areas also.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:28 pm

Its not bad small area of higher amounts though. What credibility does the control have though I don't think ive ever seen it verify.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 21 Eps_sn11

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 21 Eps_sn11

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:28 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Rayno says no panic yet. He saw the EURO and even though he believes it's the best model he does not trust it and thinks it corrects north. He says tomorrow is the day to rejoice or jump off the cliff.

Why does he not trust it though? I definitely think it is a feasible solution. We just have to hope the other models are handling the upper energy better.

You should watch the video Frank. This is one of his best. Seriously.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/channels/raynob

by Snowfall Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:29 pm

Bernie said yesterday where a storm comes in on the west and where it leaves on the east is around the same latitude so I would think the euro is way to south. What time is the next trust worthy model come out

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:29 pm

algae888 wrote:jman dc went from 30" to 15 on the euro from 00z to 12z. model is probably correcting qpf and will probably correct in other areas also.

I thought I saw a map where dc had 36-48 just a little while ago. This has just become frustrating as of the 12z. One run and they felt waqs hiccup okay but two and now pro mets twc etc are jumping ship not a good sign.

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