Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:00 pm

THIS DID tick south. The H5 low began going east instead of northeast and that forces the surface low a further south and east too.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 25 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 25 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:00 pm

Def less intense snow rates, and wheres that insame amount for DC, hmmm maybe u were all right.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:00 pm

This run has issues, no way 500 will look like this:

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 25 GFS_18_opUS_H50V_0096

This shows the GFS trying to have two nearly separate circulations. This cannot happen. I personally don't care about this run, regardless of what it shows.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:01 pm

YEAHH BABY!!

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 25 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f102

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:01 pm

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:01 pm

NOT GOOD NEWS ITS SOUTH! PLus looks like precip is less intense in conjunction.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:02 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:03 pm

It's a nice run but is the GFS ticking south a nod to the EURO? Very possible. The confluence over NE is being modeled stronger. That's a bad trend.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 25 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f105

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 25 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f105

by Guest Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:04 pm

Ggs starting eventual cave to euro here. If tonight's 0z runs continue its the beginning of the end

by **devsman** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:04 pm

Back to Euro. People bring up Juno and its horrible handling of it but isn't the Euro better with Miller A's than Miller B's? Juno was a miller B if you guys have taught me correctly.

by Guest Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:04 pm

Let's be honest not wish cast. We can take it

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:04 pm

Still 6-12+ for the area but from NYC east very little snow.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:05 pm

by **jimv45** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:05 pm

I think before all said and done this will end up a minor event for all peeps just one time can things go right!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:05 pm

Unfortunately there was a negative trend in there with the H5 low going due east at one point. It also began to look strung out at the core. One could say this is a nod to the EURO but better off waiting to see what happens tonight.

by **snow247** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:06 pm

Not liking the trends today.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:07 pm

For those that want to take this seriously:

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 25 Snowfall_total_accum_lwwratio_NECONUS_hr114

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:09 pm

thats still a good map RB who can say no to that lol

by Guest Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:09 pm

Jman. This run is more snow s and e

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:09 pm

I would be very concerned in the HV or NEPA, concerned NW of 95, the coast is probably your storm (holds back curses)....

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:10 pm

RJB8525 wrote:thats still a good map RB who can say no to that lol

The northern cut off is indicative of dry air / confluence which is main reason why storm track shifted S&E.

by Guest Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:10 pm

18z usually a poorly thought of run. I'll set my alarm for 140 tonight. Check the oz runs and either rejoice or begin acknowledging the end of this one time historic threat. Hoping for the bedt

by **jimv45** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:11 pm

NJ i would be concerned everywhere!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:11 pm

And probably a historic storm for DC....

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:13 pm

RJB8525 wrote:thats still a good map RB who can say no to that lol

I am because the evolution at H5 was bs. You will not have a two-lobed closed low, which signifies it's trying to have two centers at the mid-levels. It just doesn't happen. Whether it's caused by convective feedback or something else (maybe trying to correct itself?) I don't know, but I when I saw that I stopped paying attention.

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