01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

TNjWeatherGuy wrote:3z SREF, sticking to its guns...

https://2img.net/h/oi64.tinypic.com/ifswad.gif

NJ, you're up?! Did you see my euro post?

3z SREF. WOW.

Keeping hope alive!

Up late, just got back home though. Not sure the situation with EURO from instant 24hr maps it looked east but when the snowmap came out it was north and the finer frames but supposedly there was some issue with certain frame(s) of the run? But probably gonna go to bed and hope for the best tomorrow. The way the radar looks we may be going for an earlier onset typical of storms in the last years because of current position, size and time.

Never seen a storm that played with our emotions more than this storm. Going from a foot plus to 3 inches and then back to a foot plus for the NYC area. Just hoping that cutoff is not like the Feb 5-6, 2010 storm.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Up late, just got back home though. Not sure the situation with EURO from instant 24hr maps it looked east but when the snowmap came out it was north and the finer frames but supposedly there was some issue with certain frame(s) of the run? But probably gonna go to bed and hope for the best tomorrow. The way the radar looks we may be going for an earlier onset typical of storms in the last years because of current position, size and time.

For what it's worth, Ryan Maue confirmed its validity.

The maps are out on storm Vista and I'm hearing the 500 millibar map very nice on the euro looks like it's trending towards the nam. Can you believe the nam could end up being the correct model. WOW

Widespread 2-3 feet on nam

6z nam gives us as much snow as dc...

most consistent model for this storm by far...

it looks like s/r models bring the snow in around midnight tonite. precip looks like it speed up a bit

hi res nam 12-18" for nyc north to south...

4k nam crushes li...

eps 1"le for nyc...

she's a beauty. look at that squall line...

nws has the same maps as yesterday afternoon... actually they upped totals in my area a bit

currently 22* at the park nice fresh cold air for this storm to work with

06z rgem is well south of nam but came north from 00z. 6" in city with more south and east.

still snowing when run ended nyc on east

Hi i just woke up and read all this... Do we believe it or not??

so just to recap we have the euro, euro ens, ukie, nam sref and jma with 12+ of snow for nyc and the cmc and rgem around 6" and then the gfs around 3"

6gfs came a little further north goes from 3" at 00z to 7" at 06z for nyc. less north more south and east

GFS and Euro still look terrible for half of the board while the NAM crushes all of us.

i guess a good call right now is for 6-12" for nyc proper and li, 3-6" north and northwest of white plains and 12+" for central nj. snow and rb will have their updated maps when they wake.lol off to bed

Blizaed warning for me here.

Just my two cents the storm looks impressive and now models may be worthless anyway. More ofvacwatch and see.

I'm not even close to you guys at this but to me it looks like the GFS is trying to move closer to the NAM.