01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

jimv45 wrote:looking at the CMC it still can't break that wall it seem to go right after Northern NJ.

jim, I think it sees that E jump of the storm's main energy.If that happens, we are scrooed.And that, Ladies and Gentleman, is the 64,000 dollar nowcast question!!!

yea doc trying to stay positive but this seems to be the norm with storms over the last few years! Boy I miss the days of these coming right up the coast!!!

Skins....the latest SREF has a mean has 25 inches at BLM with the lowest member at 15. That isn't to far from you and they are reliable in this range so maybe 15-25 where you live.

That would be best case scenario and no mixing of course

Biggin23 wrote:That would be best case scenario and no mixing of course

Thanks biggin I think it's definetly goi,g to over achieve

skinns, we are in great position i belive!!

20 inches around the I-195 corridor could happen, 12-20 from 195 to NYC, and 8-12 north of there. Lots of moisture coming up this way!

u think nyc can get more then ocean county?

So whats it looking like for Long Island?

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Wow look at that fetch of moisture!!!

JC! This has got to overperform IMO, lets hope that East jump does not happen and if it does at least tuck in first and slower to move out as u said mugs if it doesn't we all get half the NAM totals!

Also looks to be coming in much sooner, no longer a sat morning start.

DUDE RYAN POSTED THIS 5/6ISH FOR CNJ AND 8-9ISH UP HERE IF NOT SOONER!!

jake732 wrote:u think nyc can get more then ocean county?

Possibly - due to teh fact u may have a mixing issue for some time but still man 8-14" is good for you - may bump that up. How close to the shoreline are u?

Snowing in VA and radar shows leading edge in DC. I bet we see flakes falling in central NJ by 6 or 7.

Hearing reports of 3" of snow in Charleston, WV in 35 minutes, WOW

The latest from Bernie Rayno; awesome explanation of what's going on with the northern trend...

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/blizzard-unfolds-from-dc-to-bo

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Wow look at that fetch of moisture!!!

JC! This has got to overperform IMO, lets hope that East jump does not happen and if it does at least tuck in first and slower to move out as u said mugs if it doesn't we all get half the NAM totals!

Also looks to be coming in much sooner, no longer a sat morning start.

DUDE RYAN POSTED THIS 5/6ISH FOR CNJ AND 8-9ISH UP HERE IF NOT SOONER!!

Nice so basically do we even bother with 18z GFS? After that I assume its all SR model watching if not just nowcasting? Do you think I will do well with this, Its so funny I literall know exactly where the end of the bx is of the blizzard warning and is walkable, lol I think they expand it north they have to closer to coast means higher winds, also snow totals go up, NWS has yet to up me, in fact last updated wsw they lowered me a bit but I think that changes sometime this afternoon as well as the blizzard warnings expanding into southern WC and NNJ. maybe even fairfiled county CT.

What I was saying about the CMC OP look at the ens - woot woot!!





tucked low not jumping to cf and splitting like a cheerleader - come on peps let's goo!!!

SoulSingMG wrote:The latest from Bernie Rayno; awesome explanation of what's going on with the northern trend...

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/blizzard-unfolds-from-dc-to-bo

He is so good, very thorough and he speaks in layman terms!

deadrabbit79 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:The latest from Bernie Rayno; awesome explanation of what's going on with the northern trend...

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/blizzard-unfolds-from-dc-to-bo

He is so good, very thorough and he speaks in layman terms!

Still feels NYC could see more, and notice he put the 12-24 into jersey, this trend is looking awesome.

amugs wrote:What I was saying about the CMC OP look at the ens - woot woot!!





tucked low not jumping to cf and splitting like a cheerleader - come on peps let's goo!!!

Did we mention the GEFS? What did they show?

12z GGEM Ensemble is better than OP, apparently

SoulSingMG wrote:12z GGEM Ensemble is better than OP, apparently

YES MORE COMPACT TUCKED =SLP AND DOESN'T JUMP, ELONGATES BUT NOT UNTIL IT IS BY THE DEL MARVA AREA - HUGE AND BRING THE HEAVIER PRECIP MORE NORTH - IT'S COMING!!

FROM A MET:

I spent some more time analyzing the Canadian, it is actually extremely tucked in more so than most guidance almost directly over de. The problem arises again once it tries to chance convection out in the ocean. But regardless it trended more away from it and better overall, but it was a hair and one thunderstorm away from showing something similar to the nam. Wow

amugs wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:12z GGEM Ensemble is better than OP, apparently

YES MORE COMPACT TUCKED =SLP AND DOESN'T JUMP, ELONGATES BUT NOT UNTIL IT IS BY THE DEL MARVA AREA - HUGE AND BRING THE HEAVIER PRECIP MORE NORTH - IT'S COMING!!

Mugs ur always the saving grace of optimism and happiness here : ) Even if things do not go right which is looking less and less likely at least you give us the mojo to keep going. Others too but mugs is the powerhouse motivator.

amugs wrote:FROM A MET:

I spent some more time analyzing the Canadian, it is actually extremely tucked in more so than most guidance almost directly over de. The problem arises again once it tries to chance convection out in the ocean. But regardless it trended more away from it and better overall, but it was a hair and one thunderstorm away from showing something similar to the nam. Wow

Is it a secret who it is, lol would like to see source, even though I trust you.

Any thoughts on start times? I'm in Morris County (near Morristown), if that helps!