Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:45 am

Frank_Wx wrote:

I have a buddy in Atco NJ right outside of Philly.He's gonna get blasted, probably 24 inches.Wow!!!

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:45 am

jmanley32 wrote:Nice 10-12 for me on 12z GFS that's a big uptick, stil ldoes that strung out to follow convection thing. Only model that is doing that no? What are you thinking about that Frank?

Yes SLP jumps east again - chasing after its tail like a dog somewhat but bring good snow up this way - looks top 1.25" into teh city - trending with nam??

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:46 am

wow GFS, central jersey 25-30!! NYC 12-14 about. This is a big shift!

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 27 12z_gf10

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:47 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jimv45 wrote:cp I don't think we even sniff 6 but hey if that were to happen I take it!!

Jim were about 20 miles south of you so maybe we max at 6 you're area at this point probably a max of 3 if that. The gradient is consistently that tight. I haven't given up yet though. Call me an idiot still dreams of 96 for me.

CP that 12z GFS is the likely solution with those upper air patterns taking this east.Like you say, we'll be lucky to get 6 with better ratios.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:47 am

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:47 am

jmanley32 wrote:wow GFS, central jersey 25-30!! NYC 12-14 about. This is a big shift!

That jackpot creeps clooooooser and closer to us, doesn't it? Basketball

by **Vinnydula** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:48 am

Frank can you see this coming more north now.? Now that we are 24hours away what models are the best?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:48 am

This could still be trending too.

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:48 am

Those are good trends right there!

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:49 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jimv45 wrote:cp I don't think we even sniff 6 but hey if that were to happen I take it!!

Jim were about 20 miles south of you so maybe we max at 6 you're area at this point probably a max of 3 if that. The gradient is consistently that tight. I haven't given up yet though. Call me an idiot still dreams of 96 for me.

CP that 12z GFS is the likely solution with those upper air patterns taking this east.Like you say, we'll be lucky to get 6 with better ratios.

You guys may max out at 15:1 rats cause yuo are not near the wind field so you'll have better snow growth - crazy as it may sound but yuo may do fairly well considering.

NMA not so crazy after all with its depiction of the H5??

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:49 am

amugs wrote:

Can someone explain to me how the 3.0 QPF is not far from our latitude in NYC and why that jackpot wouldn't move toward us from there? I don't get it. It's more west of us than south...

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:49 am

I will have a full update and final snow map in the afternoon. I am at work and can't really analyze upper air graphics right now.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:49 am

amugs wrote:

Wow now showing 2" here, arriving at a consensus... Leggoo

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:50 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
amugs wrote:
Can someone explain to me how the 3.0 QPF is not far from our latitude in NYC and why that jackpot wouldn't move toward us from there? I don't get it. It's more west of us than south...

As the ULL trough goes negative and pulls away, there is a "norlun-like" feature over Philly.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:This could still be trending too.

I like your words : ) I will not be disappointed with 10-12, but go up even more, and central jersey just nuts, looking more and more like NAM, bizarre.

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:50 am

amugs wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jimv45 wrote:cp I don't think we even sniff 6 but hey if that were to happen I take it!!

Jim were about 20 miles south of you so maybe we max at 6 you're area at this point probably a max of 3 if that. The gradient is consistently that tight. I haven't given up yet though. Call me an idiot still dreams of 96 for me.

CP that 12z GFS is the likely solution with those upper air patterns taking this east.Like you say, we'll be lucky to get 6 with better ratios.

You guys may max out at 15:1 rats cause yuo are not near the wind field so you'll have better snow growth - crazy as it may sound but yuo may do fairly well considering.

NMA not so crazy after all with its depiction of the H5??

Guess we are close to nowcast Mugsy so who knows.Like CP says we'll be lucky to get 6 ATM.

by Deweydave Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:51 am

Bernie Rayno
‏@AccuRayno

New video coming.I want to show why the push north of precip has occurred. As I went over it yesterday. The model changes are far from over.

by **jimv45** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:51 am

doc cp don't want to be a downer but i see 1-3!! 3 for you guys! 1 if i am lucky!

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:52 am

jimv45 wrote:doc cp don't want to be a downer but i see 1-3!! 3 for you guys! 1 if i am lucky!

Don't know much about models but I suspect the East move depicted makes this ridiculously sharp cutoff in our area.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:53 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
amugs wrote:
Can someone explain to me how the 3.0 QPF is not far from our latitude in NYC and why that jackpot wouldn't move toward us from there? I don't get it. It's more west of us than south...

As the ULL trough goes negative and pulls away, there is a "norlun-like" feature over Philly.

Ahhh gotcha. Thanks Frank. Boy, Bernie is really going in...tweeted models are far from finished with changes.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:53 am

Wow

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:53 am

Sorry for the northern guys but these are great trends for NYC and immediate northern suburbs etc. Hoping that area in central jersey gets into the area hahah, not banking on that, but these models are making me spin.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:54 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jimv45 wrote:cp I don't think we even sniff 6 but hey if that were to happen I take it!!

Jim were about 20 miles south of you so maybe we max at 6 you're area at this point probably a max of 3 if that. The gradient is consistently that tight. I haven't given up yet though. Call me an idiot still dreams of 96 for me.

CP that 12z GFS is the likely solution with those upper air patterns taking this east.Like you say, we'll be lucky to get 6 with better ratios.

Interesting Doc 12Z gfs put us in the 6-8 inch area. First time Ive seen that from the GFS since several days ago. I'm not getting carried away but I'm still dreaming.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:54 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jimv45 wrote:cp I don't think we even sniff 6 but hey if that were to happen I take it!!

Jim were about 20 miles south of you so maybe we max at 6 you're area at this point probably a max of 3 if that. The gradient is consistently that tight. I haven't given up yet though. Call me an idiot still dreams of 96 for me.

CP that 12z GFS is the likely solution with those upper air patterns taking this east.Like you say, we'll be lucky to get 6 with better ratios.

Interesting Doc 12Z gfs put us in the 6-8 inch area. First time Ive seen that from the GFS since several days ago. I'm not getting carried away but I'm still dreaming.

Believe it

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:55 am

sroc4 wrote:Ok here is my 2nd call snow map. I really like what I see, not only in the trends in the models, but also current observations.
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Bump

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:56 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jimv45 wrote:cp I don't think we even sniff 6 but hey if that were to happen I take it!!

Jim were about 20 miles south of you so maybe we max at 6 you're area at this point probably a max of 3 if that. The gradient is consistently that tight. I haven't given up yet though. Call me an idiot still dreams of 96 for me.

CP that 12z GFS is the likely solution with those upper air patterns taking this east.Like you say, we'll be lucky to get 6 with better ratios.

Interesting Doc 12Z gfs put us in the 6-8 inch area. First time Ive seen that from the GFS since several days ago. I'm not getting carried away but I'm still dreaming.

Keep dreaming, it seems to be bumping us up.As you always say.."inch by inch it becomes a cinch."

Would really love to get at least a foot out of this but maybe I better start dreaming also,LOL!

by **jimv45** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:57 am

Doc I have seen cutoffs in my 30 plus years of following weather but i have not see one this bad with such a strong storm not wanting to get north of 287 like it says lets piss off cp doc and many others!!!

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