01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:I am hearing the RGEM looks similar to the 4km NAM..?

Not sure why the 12z RGEM has not loaded at all on wxbell, so I cannot get the maps.  Unless someone knows somewhere else it can be found.

I think it just initialized there. I actually posted the 6z. I am just realizing that now.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:No one get excited about the QPF. Get excited about the TRACK! NAM continues to tuck the low into NJ instead of chasing convection.

no excited yes...but also concerned with living on the coast what that will do to our area...

I am concerned at this point too. I have friends that live by you and I'm a realtor so I travel down the Hazlet/Middletown area quite often and I would hate to see anyone suffer anymore damage after Sandy. While I'm excited to see all of the totals rise I'm worried about everyone's safety. I'm going to have to help my husband with snow removal with all of this! I'm hopeful that the NAM QPF is overdone a bit.

docstox12 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:Definitely lesser amounts in HV. Still looking like c-2 from 84 north.

This is not our storm hyde.I'm 2 to 4 a little south of you.The more easterly than north movement is ruining it for us in the HV.

Yup, It's pretty apparent on almost all models significant precip is not making it up here. It's a distinct possibility we get nothing IMBY.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:I am hearing the RGEM looks similar to the 4km NAM..?

Not sure why the 12z RGEM has not loaded at all on wxbell, so I cannot get the maps.  Unless someone knows somewhere else it can be found.

I think it just initialized there.  I actually posted the 6z.  I am just realizing that now.

Yes the 06z was not good, I hear the 12z is pretty big hit, all this model confusion at this pt. is stressing me out lol, one person says believe the nw trend believe higher snows some say do not u had a great explanation of the E trend though I hope ur dead wrong (not bashing you).

Precip[ creeping North - it tucked the low in more top the coast - playing catch up?? 18Z will tell better:

RGEM made a tiiiiny shift north w/ heaviest precip. Good lord, what a nail biter.

Doc. Don't worry I'm not buying anything for us other than a 6 max. I'm just expecting another Frustrating force field right around the TZ BRIDGE. Most models have been pretty consistent with that.

However these short term models as I have stated several times do remind me of the last minute turn of the 96 storm. I'm not saying I buy it because I don't but a man can dream can't he.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Doc. Don't worry I'm not buying anything for us other than a 6 max. I'm just expecting another Frustrating force field right around the TZ BRIDGE.  Most models have been pretty consistent with that.

However these short term models as I have stated several times do remind me of the last minute turn of the 96 storm. I'm not saying I buy it because I don't but a man can dream can't he.

Right CP.I remember the Boxing Day Blizzard which a few days before was modeled to be 1 to 3 or OTS.

Yeah 6 will be ok but meh compared to NYC on South.Oh well....

Doc i am getting tired of hearing this is not our storm good thing i will not be around tomorrow to think about it  going to hunter mountain with family at least I get to see some snow!

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:I am hearing the RGEM looks similar to the 4km NAM..?

Not sure why the 12z RGEM has not loaded at all on wxbell, so I cannot get the maps.  Unless someone knows somewhere else it can be found.

I think it just initialized there.  I actually posted the 6z.  I am just realizing that now.

Yes the 06z was not good, I hear the 12z is pretty big hit, all this model confusion at this pt. is stressing me out lol, one person says believe the nw trend believe higher snows some say do not u had a great explanation of the E trend though I hope ur dead wrong (not bashing you).

All I was trying to illustrate with that was why there was an east push to the LP once off the coast on the modeling.

cp I don't think we even sniff 6 but hey if that were to happen I take it!!

Closed 500mb further N than models. It might open up again before remaining closed:

sroc4 wrote:Closed 500mb further N than models.  It might open up again before remaining closed:

Is this good for this area?

12z GFS brings much more snowfall for NYC. There is more lift and a better defined CCB

jimv45 wrote:Doc i am getting tired of hearing this is not our storm good thing i will not be around tomorrow to think about it  going to hunter mountain with family at least I get to see some snow!

Enjoy, jim! At least we had some nice cold weather for the ski resorts to pump out snow.

NVM u said north duh dumb question lol

http://patch.com/new-jersey/westfield/nj-storm-update-blizzard-threat-grows-more-details-released-0

What my town is saying.

Nice 10-12 for me on 12z GFS that's a big uptick, stil ldoes that strung out to follow convection thing. Only model that is doing that no? What are you thinking about that Frank?

jimv45 wrote:cp I don't think we even sniff 6 but hey if that were to happen I take it!!

Jim were about 20 miles south of you so maybe we max at 6 you're area at this point probably a max of 3 if that. The gradient is consistently that tight. I haven't given up yet though. Call me an idiot still dreams of 96 for me.

boy people south of NYC are going to be stuck for a while!

Look at where the GFS is tucking the surface low. Wow.

Frank_Wx wrote:

I have a buddy in Atco NJ right outside of Philly.He's gonna get blasted, probably 24 inches.Wow!!!

jmanley32 wrote:Nice 10-12 for me on 12z GFS that's a big uptick, stil ldoes that strung out to follow convection thing.  Only model that is doing that no?  What are you thinking about that Frank?

Yes SLP jumps east again - chasing after its tail like a dog somewhat but bring good snow up this way - looks top 1.25" into teh city - trending with nam??