January 23, 2016 Roidzilla Observations

Dtone wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:SWEET!

PECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
836 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

CTZ009-NJZ006-105>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-231615-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-EASTERN UNION-WESTERN ESSEX-HUDSON-EASTERN
ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-SOUTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN QUEENS-KINGS
(BROOKLYN)-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-SOUTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHWEST
SUFFOLK-BRONX-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK-NORTHEAST
SUFFOLK-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)-NORTHWEST SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-
836 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...ESSEX...
UNION...HUDSON...NASSAU...NEW
YORK...SUFFOLK...KINGS...QUEENS...SOUTH CENTRAL WESTCHESTER AND
BRONX COUNTIES THROUGH 11 AM...

AT 818 AM EST...AN INTENSE SNOW BAND HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
REGION...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR BEING
OBSERVED. THIS SNOW BAND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED THIS MORNING DUE TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS
THE SNOW IS BLOWN AROUND BY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH. MANY ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOMING IMPASSABLE DUE
TO THE RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SCATTERED DOWNED TREE
LIMBS AND POWER LINES WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD FOR TRAVELERS.

LAT...LON 4060 7446 4091 7433 4076 7409 4111 7372

yeah i can confirm that.
shortly after that 6" measurement in central park, it was to all out blizzard conditions.  Balls to the wall. White tornado.
Should be well past 6" now.

This includes me too and I can confirm it too, its nuts out there, the trees were thrashing around at times.

Well, look at it this way CP:  CPK is now out of the bottom five in seasonal snow totals!

jmanley32 wrote:No plows here, in snow like this they do not bother until it lightens up, umm bad idea if you ask me.

Our city's plows came through twice since I'm awake, and the condo across the street has had the plow guy every hour. Poor guy keeps spinning his wheels trying to back up the hill to grab the next load to push. Too early to salt anything.

And yes, we have idiot neighbors digging out and driving already. I can see the EMT who has to go into work, but one guy went out and came back with a bag from a donut shop. Really?? He had to do that during a blizzard?? I guess he wanted to prove his Jeep could drive through anything.

Heavy sleet here limbs and power wires coming down

Sparky Sparticles wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:No plows here, in snow like this they do not bother until it lightens up, umm bad idea if you ask me.

Our city's plows came through twice since I'm awake, and the condo across the street has had the plow guy every hour. Poor guy keeps spinning his wheels trying to back up the hill to grab the next load to push. Too early to salt anything.

And yes, we have idiot neighbors digging out and driving already. I can see the EMT who has to go into work, but one guy went out and came back with a bag from a donut shop. Really?? He had to do that during a blizzard?? I guess he wanted to prove his Jeep could drive through anything.

If you got a good jeep you can lol,

Lost power for a few minutes now back on. Huge Heavy band approaching from the ocean just east of the drive slot looks to crush Suffolk county and if it continues back building maybe Nassau as well. I hope I don't get stuck in between two heavy bands for awhile. Right now the winds are insane and the snow is heavy.

Frank update? What do you think of your map verifying?

By the way Laguardia up to 9.5" per NWS

Eyeballing at least 4 inches and still coming down hard.

docstox12 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Heavy sleet here limbs and power wires coming down

Jersey Coast mixing? Maybe the LP is hugging the coast?

Yeah it's been heavy sleet for an hour now hope it changes back over

snow247 wrote:Weenie band just south of me

I'm under that band right now intense whiteout conditions Jamn it looks like we may be in the sweet spot for the wrap-around moisture

Doc, read the Mount Holly forecast discussion. He explains the current situation well.

DOC AND CP......................Wait till you see what is about to hit you. You will get 6" between now and 11:30

skinsfan1177 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Heavy sleet here limbs and power wires coming down

Jersey Coast mixing? Maybe the LP is hugging the coast?

Yeah it's been heavy sleet for an hour now hope it changes back over

It is straight ice falling from the sky. Have about 15-16 inches on average on the driveway. Temp 32.9

23F here with 29.78 humidity, but the barometer has been falling
Winds out of the northeast around 25 mph with gusts about 40
No good place to measure snow so I took an average. 8-10 inches

Bring it on....

skinsfan1177 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Heavy sleet here limbs and power wires coming down

Jersey Coast mixing? Maybe the LP is hugging the coast?

Yeah it's been heavy sleet for an hour now hope it changes back over

I believe we will change back over in the next hour based on LP positioning, and the pivoting of the precip shield.

Quietace wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Heavy sleet here limbs and power wires coming down

Jersey Coast mixing? Maybe the LP is hugging the coast?

Yeah it's been heavy sleet for an hour now hope it changes back over

It is straight ice falling from the sky. Have about 15-16 inches on average on the driveway. Temp 32.9

Yeah ave 16 is about right hope for a change back over power lines are coming down with the ice.

Frank when is this supposed to pivot are we going to get dry slotted

algae888 wrote:

snow247 wrote:Weenie band just south of me

I'm under that band right now intense whiteout conditions Jamn it looks like we may be in the sweet spot for the wrap-around moisture

seriously its crazy out there, no thundersnow hoping for some.

3"/hr rates around the bx westchester border

WHAT A STORM!!!!!

Like I mentioned in yesterday's update this storm is being fed from the Tropical Pacific and Atlantic. The Sub-Tropical Jet Stream is energizing this storm to bring incredible snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour across the Metro region.



500mb low is over the Mid-Atlantic and slowly tracking wast-northeast. The surface low is tightly wrapped just off the coast of Delmarva. Once the 500mb low is offshore, some models try to develop an inverted trough that would bring enhanced snowfall rates over an isolated area somewhere over eastern PA, NJ and NY.



The HRRR has it snowing until Midnight tonight! Look at the band situated over the area at 10pm. This means we still have 12-15 hours of storm left. Much of these bands are producing 1-2" of snow an hour. YOU DO THE MATH!



The RAP has the storm ending between 9-10pm. Check out this heavy band over the area at 5pm tonight.



Once the surface low begins tracking from north to east, the CCB will pivot over the I-95 Corridor and points east. As you get into CNJ / NNJ / NYC / LI that is where the most impressive frontogenesis will be. Areas under high frontogensis (lift) will see snow rates of 2-3" an hour with thundersnow. Because of these trends, I have decided to place a 20-30" snow accumulation area. Basically, this is where I see Roidzilla status being achieved. Areas outside of the purple shading may see 20"+ too, but I feel the best counties reach 24" or more are those I shaded. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE REACH FRANKZILLA LEVELS WHICH IS 36" OF SNOW! Someone in NNJ may just hit it!

Update

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t643-january-23-2016-roidzilla-observations-part-2#78624

Another awesome writeup

measured 9" at 8:45

This is what it's all about folks. We don't get these very often, and they aren't as easy to get as people sometimes think. So soak this one in because I'm pretty sure we won't see another like this for some time.