Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:38 pm

algae888 wrote:Most of the ensemble members that are well East are weak. The closer to the coast Solutions are the really impressive ones we need that southern vort to be as amped up as possible if this is going to work for us

Agreed. Earlier phase too.

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:40 pm

For those wondering about the UKMET......total liquid equivalent precipitation......I think it would be safe to assume better than 10:1 too lmao

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 9 Img_1411

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 9 Img_1411

by **dsix85** Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:43 pm

Rb great analysis.. As you and other experts have stated we are 12 hours away on these runs from an all out blitzkrieg like assault on the region. Very encouraging signs, anxiously awaiting the Euro runs!

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:43 pm

My confidence is building slightly that this is trending in the right direction for us. To Scott's point, any big hits that output crazy snow maps should be in the Banter Thread. We may start a thread on this event tomorrow if necessary.

Can't wait to see the EURO. All 12z guidance today took another step in the right direction. I especially loved the 12z GEFS!

by **dsix85** Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:45 pm

Frank-when does the Euro start rolling?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:48 pm

dsix85 wrote:Frank-when does the Euro start rolling?

Basically now. I will post updates.

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:49 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:My confidence is building slightly that this is trending in the right direction for us. To Scott's point, any big hits that output crazy snow maps should be in the Banter Thread. We may start a thread on this event tomorrow if necessary.

Can't wait to see the EURO. All 12z guidance today took another step in the right direction. I especially loved the 12z GEFS!

Does the QPF map I posted count as a "crazy snow map"? I mean, technically it's only a liquid equivalency :p also, to your point about the GEFS, it looked to me like they are attempting to close off H5 near the Delmarva given the evolution of the height anomalies. If so that would be amazing.

by **hyde345** Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:49 pm

dsix85 wrote:Frank-when does the Euro start rolling?

1PM

by **MattyICE** Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:49 pm

Ukie to me, along with some looks from various ensembles, looks like it may want to take on a double barreled structure? Or split a piece off and leave it closer to the coast while the primary stays east? Any thoughts on this? I could be wrong.

by **dsix85** Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:50 pm

@Hyde Thank you kind sir.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:52 pm

The last 4 runs of the GEFS valid for January 2nd show the ULL in the eastern PAC trending stronger. Easily shown on this trend GIF. Down to 561 ddm on latest 12z GEFS. The western ridge is more amp'd as a result. More interaction with the short waves downstream.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 9 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh84_trend

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 9 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh84_trend

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:53 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:My confidence is building slightly that this is trending in the right direction for us. To Scott's point, any big hits that output crazy snow maps should be in the Banter Thread. We may start a thread on this event tomorrow if necessary.

Can't wait to see the EURO. All 12z guidance today took another step in the right direction. I especially loved the 12z GEFS!

Does the QPF map I posted count as a "crazy snow map"? I mean, technically it's only a liquid equivalency :p also, to your point about the GEFS, it looked to me like they are attempting to close off H5 near the Delmarva given the evolution of the height anomalies. If so that would be amazing.

qpf maps are fine Wink

EURO with better western ridging already through hour 21

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:56 pm

Ridge is already better than that of the GFS through hour 33 on the EURO

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 9 IMG_0790.PNG.afafc0dff271685f4b8b58198cccd044

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 9 IMG_0790.PNG.afafc0dff271685f4b8b58198cccd044

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:59 pm

FIRST PLAY BY PLAY OF THE SEASON!!!!! YES!!!!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:02 pm

Through 45 still better ridging than GFS but the short wave is weaker. Have a feeling that will not bold well for us this run. We'll see.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:02 pm

rb924119 wrote:For those wondering about the UKMET......total liquid equivalent precipitation......I think it would be safe to assume better than 10:1 too lmao

hot damn!!! That's the euro map

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:03 pm

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:04 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:For those wondering about the UKMET......total liquid equivalent precipitation......I think it would be safe to assume better than 10:1 too lmao

hot damn!!! That's the euro map

No, UK. Pressure map is what I just posted to go along with it. Where's the dotted line?? Lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:06 pm

No I mean if that was translated to snow be close or even bigger than the euro map we had few days ago. Yes sign

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:07 pm

The EURO run is improved over 00z and MUCH better over anything GFS has shown. The amplified ridge this run should at least show the storm. It may be a scraper but at least the important pieces are all there.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:10 pm

Here are all the pieces

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 9 IMG_0791.PNG.2bf8cccd5a894100d2054a34a66fc79e

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:13 pm

Madonne!

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 9 5a47d71a7a797

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:14 pm

Definitely improved from last night, Frank. Lead energy much deeper and ridge much better position and strength. I think she comes west, though by how much I don't know.

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Madonne!

THERE IT IS!!!! THE "M" WORD!!!!!! YESSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:15 pm

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:17 pm

Yup, early signs of phasing at 96!!!! Here we go nowwwwww

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:18 pm

Compared to 00z EURO through hour 105, the northern energy is stronger (likely as a result of a quicker entrance of the upper level jet) and the PNA ridge is much improved.

by Sponsored content