Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[weatherwatchermom]

Gfs is a smidge west I think from 00z but doesn't look great. Expert analysis needed. BTW anyone have surface and or snow maps from euro?

I'll be out of the game through the first series of 12z's today, and only sporadically checking in after that. Sorry for my absence last night also, but I was working until 3am lol I've been doing chores ever since, now I'm gonna pump some iron, shower and head home to Pa for the evening aha after some contemplation, though, I can honestly see arguments for trends in both directions, and to be completely truthful, I don't know if I can call out what I think this will do over the next 48 hours. There are so many conflicting signals, it all boils down to how an individual weights each factor in his or analysis and prediction of a trend west versus east, or even no trend at all. I guess if I absolutely HAD to make a call, without as much wishcasting or cynicism as possible.........I think we see a resurgence of the westward trend. To what degree, I have no idea, but I do think that's where I'm leaning right now based on HOW I WEIGHT ALL OF THE FACTORS IN PLAY. Take that as you will.

thanks rb safe travels

[docstox12]

NWS hedging their bets at this juncture with the OTS and full hit coastal ATM so it's still a possibility.Seems to me we have been in a dry pattern since the torch October.That seems to be translating into a cold-dry pattern now from that warm-dry.

[skinsfan1177]

I'm throwing this out their nam is west of GFS. I'm not throwing in the towel .

[skinsfan1177]

Nam Definetly showed improvements now lets see what gfs does

[algae888]

Yes skins the nam is much improved that southern vort is much stronger about 6 millibars if extrapolated out that would come right up the coast

[nutleyblizzard]

Nam Definetly showed improvements now lets see what gfs does

There's talk that if the NAM run continued on it would of been a huge hit. Who knows, maybe NAM and Navgem are onto something.

[skinsfan1177]

Nam Definetly showed improvements now lets see what gfs does

There's talk that if the NAM run continued on it would of been a huge hit. Who knows, maybe NAM and Navgem are onto something.

Maybe I also heard the direction the nam would take would be ENE from that position so who knows

[mikeypizano]

Nam Definetly showed improvements now lets see what gfs does

There's talk that if the NAM run continued on it would of been a huge hit. Who knows, maybe NAM and Navgem are onto something.

March 2017, NAM nailed it

[WeatherBob]

Anyone going to start a new thread for this storm?

[weatherwatchermom]

Nam Definetly showed improvements now lets see what gfs does

There's talk that if the NAM run continued on it would of been a huge hit. Who knows, maybe NAM and Navgem are onto something.

from your mouth to mother nature's ear!!!! my motto is "it's not over till the fat lady sings!!"

[weatherwatchermom]

Anyone going to start a new thread for this storm?

I wouldn't...superstitious or even a true threat yet...just my two cents...

[crippo84]

I'm def no pro, but the low placements above look like an OTS solution unless it took an extremely heavy hook.

[crippo84]

I'm def no pro, but the low placements above look like an OTS solution unless it took an extremely heavy hook.

Sorry - I now realize that was a GFS vs NAM image.

[jmanley32]

I'm liking the talk this morning a bit more let's keep the hopes alive the bam looks nice. Where's frank?

[nutleyblizzard]

Looks like the GFS is trying for an earlier phase (hr 72).

[sroc4]

Guys. This is an extremely complex set up. Some take aways I took from yesterday and so far with the NAM, GFs is looking good so far, today is that there will be a stout ridge out west which is imperative. There appears there will be at least some level of phasing down near the gulf states. There is a lot of energy associated with the STJ.

There is an impressive dual jet structure in all major modeling that will be key as well and why this storm will be very strong regardless of where it ends up.

So where is the LP Center placement as it phases because as it does there is some Neg tilt occurring. some energy in the STJ gets out ahead of the phasing energy and the models have seemed to want to place the low to go along with it. This is possible. However when I look at the timing of the phase and the position of the dual jet structure. “I think” the LP placement should be further west. The NAM started to show this. I am mobile so I cannot show maps with drawings.

[jmanley32]

Gfs looks the same at hr 90.

[nutleyblizzard]

Hr 84. Definitely more phasing going on. Argues for a western jog closer to the coast.

[jmanley32]

Gfs decent shift west!

[nutleyblizzard]

Gfs decent shift west!

Wow that was so close to a much better run. H5 levels looked great. You can tell earlier on there was more stream interaction. At least the results for this run is a decent shift west.

[jmanley32]

Gfs decent shift west!

Wow that was so close to a much better run. H5 levels looked great. You can tell earlier on there was more stream interaction. At least the results for this run is a decent shift west.

yep fwef this is like Russian roulette lol

[jmanley32]

Gfs decent shift west!

Wow that was so close to a much better run. H5 levels looked great. You can tell earlier on there was more stream interaction. At least the results for this run is a decent shift west.

if we do somehow get this very close to us this storm is no joke 953 mb not go talk specifics but man would there be a serious wind component. Amoung other coastal issues not even considering what we really want the absolute dump of snow it would give.

[skinsfan1177]

Substantial shift here by like 200 miles keep them coming

[jmanley32]

Substantial shift here by like 200 miles keep them coming

wow! Let's keep it coming or I'll have go my parents where that 2.0 to 2.5 qpf us!

[frank 638]

Looking good let's hope this is our trend

[jmanley32]

Not go take that cmc snow map to heart cuz it hurts lol

[jimv45]

boy that looks good blue backing in, keep the west going.

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