2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

This will be beyond catastrophic for Savannah and anyone in the red, dark red or purple, 20-30 inches of rain scary!! They will be completely wiped out if true. Looks like we could see easily a half foot or more of rain first from a frontal system then the moisture from this basically rain from Wednesday to Sunday looks.

rb924119 wrote:Today’s 12z’s are just maddening. No other way to describe it. Inside of five days, essentially, and the GFS buries this into the interior Southeast, while the GEM rockets it up the coastal plain and has it as an ET’d storm by Day 6.

12z Euro also has it going straight inland, so GFS may be right. We def not out of the woods in terms of at least rain and copious amounts too, probably some severe storms too maybe tornado watches.

Latest Debby radar:

Oh boy my daughter and I are signed up to compete in the Zap World Championship skimboard event next weekend in Dewey Beach and this has got us worried. I was looking for the links to the weather models are they still here somewhere?

SkiSeadooJoe wrote:Oh boy my daughter and I are signed up to compete in the Zap World Championship skimboard event next weekend in Dewey Beach and this has got us worried. I was looking for the links to the weather models are they still here somewhere?

best bet is tropicaltidbits.com, where is that located? This will be well away from FL next weekend, probably even the carolinas, could be impacting us potentially.

Its in Dewey Beach Delaware basically south of Cape Mayy across the Delaware River

Checked rainfall by my brother in Cape Coral, FL, 4.5" of rain. Fort Myers is flooded again. My brother's house should be good, he is on a little rise and has a drainage ditch behind him. Hoping this gets the f off the coast before it hits us, have an event on Saturday!

Dunnzoo wrote:Checked rainfall by my brother in Cape Coral, FL,  4.5" of rain. Fort Myers is flooded again. My brother's house should be good, he is on a little rise and has a drainage ditch behind him. Hoping this gets the f off the coast before it hits us, have an event on Saturday!

Yeah I would like to have a dry or not too awful ride back from CT on Friday Night or Sat morning (About 90 mile drive) (And A nice Thursday evening for the concert we are going to, Grace Kelly, amazing singer and saxophone player. However it is not looking good in the 5-7 day, some model runs have the remnants or a TS by the end of the week with a ton of rain, like 4-6+. Hope your event isn't rained out.

00z Euro was not a good look if we don't want flooding comparable to Ida.

00z euro last night was also very concerning in rain totals and has Debby becoming a hurricane again off Carolinas which Levi said is possible if she stays over water. By end week the area verbatim on euro would see 6 to 12 inches rain with this first system and then Debby. If Debby stayed more west as she came up coast even just a little 12+ rains verbatim widespread. I can't think of a worse thing than rain like that up here. That's far worse than Ida almost 2 fold in fact.

Oh Boy

SkiSeadooJoe wrote:Oh Boy

Yeah model outputs for rainfall starting with a separate system tomorrow (flood watches are up for parts of the area) could lead to some major major flooding concerns. Albeit not like in NC, at least I hope but still seen anywhere from 4-6 to 6-12+ depending on the model and the run. We won't know for a few days how much if any Debby will provide, gotta get through tomorrows rain first.

A lot is going on in terms of Debby's movement after she crosses FL and stalls, does she stay over water and regain? How strong is the ridging that prevents her from moving north? This will also determine how much extreme rainfall SC sees (not NC) though NC will still see a lot of rain too. But SC and GA are the bullseye. Many moving parts here and until we end that stall and see what intensity she is will we know where she goes from there.

Debby has weakened considerably over land with max winds now down to 50 mph and pressure at 994 mb, but the copious rains have not diminished. We’ll soon know if this is going to get back out over the warm water where it can regenerate; but either way, with its slow movement these heavy rains will be deadly across the southeast. Then we see where these heavy rains head this weekend . . .

billg315 wrote:Debby has weakened considerably over land with max winds now down to 50 mph and pressure at 994 mb, but the copious rains have not diminished. We’ll soon know if this is going to get back out over the warm water where it can regenerate; but either way, with its slow movement these heavy rains will be deadly across the southeast. Then we see where these heavy rains head this weekend . . .

This is eerily similar to Ida I hate to say. There was severe t-storms and flooding rains in NJ the day before then a lull then Ida with her destructive flooding and the amounts from tomorrow would only enhance the risk of anything on top of it. about 10 beaches in Westchester are closed (will need 24 hrs rain free to re-open, well thats not happening) due to fresh water rain bacteria contamination? I have never heard of rain contaminating water, it sounds ironically funny. Can someone explain that to me, I know one rain and the other ocean but how do you create bacteria in the ocean from rain?

https://www.lohud.com/story/news/local/westchester/2024/08/05/westchester-ny-beaches-closed-due-to-high-levels-of-rainfall/74678029007/

Looks like heavy rains in street drains move drain water and associated bacteria colonies into the bay and ocean waters. The street drains are decades old and seedy

dkodgis wrote:https://www.lohud.com/story/news/local/westchester/2024/08/05/westchester-ny-beaches-closed-due-to-high-levels-of-rainfall/74678029007/

Looks like heavy rains in street drains  move drain water and associated bacteria colonies into the bay and ocean waters. The street drains are decades old and seedy

Yeah but this is odd as it says only 0.71 inches in the past 24 hrs, we have had far more rain than that and beaches have not been closed. This is the first time in living here that I have heard of this.

Sorry for my absence, folks, but I’ve been working my rear end off the last few days. Safe to say that my ideas COMPLETELY busted on this one, and Scott (sroc) was far more in tune with this system than I was. Two primary reasons why my forecast was blown to smithereens:

1. The western extent of the Atlantic ridge did not erode like I thought it would. Although the trough coming into the southeastern U.S. behaved as I thought it would, the combination of slowness of the backing of trough along the southern periphery of that ridge as well as what I think was enhanced latent heat release from the developing tropical cyclone allowed the western periphery to be maintained far longer than I expected, which allowed the track into the Gulf of Mexico.

2. We lost the -NAO, which was CRUCIAL to pinning the main trough over eastern Canada and the U.S. By allowing that to escape, it is creating the additional separation needed between the tropical cyclone and the westerlies which I thought would be there to create the sharp turn out sea. Instead, as that trough exits, the ridge builds in behind it ahead of the next incoming trough, and right over the top of the tropical cyclone which will cause the move back westward into the Southeast.

The only other part that I got right was less energy will be held back from the next incoming trough, but it’s inconsequential at this point. And, sadly, because I was o busy, I couldn’t offer any updates, so yeah, I’ll take the “F” on this one, and again, Scott easily takes the victory here haha

Side note, the GFS somehow managed to do the best with system from what I’ve seen, and it kind of wasn’t even close. I think it had a 1-2 day lead on the idea of the westward hook back into the Southeast. So I owe it an apology this time. Sorry, GFS, but you’re still a blind squirrel in my eyes, luckily you found the nut this time haha kidding aside, I do apologize for the very poor performance; it certainly wasn’t one of my better performances.

jmanley32 wrote:

billg315 wrote:Debby has weakened considerably over land with max winds now down to 50 mph and pressure at 994 mb, but the copious rains have not diminished. We’ll soon know if this is going to get back out over the warm water where it can regenerate; but either way, with its slow movement these heavy rains will be deadly across the southeast. Then we see where these heavy rains head this weekend . . .

This is eerily similar to Ida I hate to say. There was severe t-storms and flooding rains in NJ the day before then a lull then Ida with her destructive flooding and the amounts from tomorrow would only enhance the risk of anything on top of it. about 10 beaches in Westchester are closed (will need 24 hrs rain free to re-open, well thats not happening) due to fresh water rain bacteria contamination? I have never heard of rain contaminating water, it sounds ironically funny. Can someone explain that to me, I know one rain and the other ocean but how do you create bacteria in the ocean from rain?

If current modeling is right, most of the rain ends up across PA and New England with a relative dry slot going pretty much along the I-95 Corridor lol it’s not from the rain directly; it’s the runoff. Certain chemicals and fertilizers are basically food for some kinds of bacteria which can be harmful to humans and other animals. When it rains, those chemicals are washed into the local waterways/sewers which eventually find their way to the ocean where these bacteria naturally exist in smaller numbers. Add the additional food from the runoff, and boom, you have (algae) blooms.

The trade off for missing the bulk of the rain, though, would be an enhanced severe weather threat along the I-95 Corridor, which isn’t any better. So definitely be on the lookout for that.

rb924119 wrote:The trade off for missing the bulk of the rain, though, would be an enhanced severe weather threat along the I-95 Corridor, which isn’t any better. So definitely be on the lookout for that.

When would that be? So far SPC does not have anything but marginal. WPC has 2-3 inches of rain for fri so i dunno, after last nights nearly 6 here in yonkers we will flood again with 2-3 inches.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:The trade off for missing the bulk of the rain, though, would be an enhanced severe weather threat along the I-95 Corridor, which isn’t any better. So definitely be on the lookout for that.

When would that be? So far SPC does not have anything but marginal. WPC has 2-3 inches of rain for fri so i dunno, after last nights nearly 6 here in yonkers we will flood again with 2-3 inches.

Friday afternoon through very early Saturday morning. And SPC didn’t have much on their radar for northern NY State until the day that Beryl was moving through; turned out to be a record day for tornadoes in the state lol

NBC Philadelphia shared these totals for yesterday's rainfall:

Highest rain totals in Central Jersey, South Jersey
Pennington (Mercer County): 7.76 in
Hopewell (Mercer County): 7.48 in
Delran (Burlington County): 7.03 in
Fairview (Burlington County): 6.09 in
Willingboro (Burlington County): 5.68 in
Ewing (Mercer County): 5.6 in
Lawrenceville (Mercer County): 4.37 in
Camden (Camden County): 4.26 in
Cinnaminson (Burlington County): 4.15 - 5.67 in
Cherry Hill (Camden County): 3.94 in
Lakewood (Ocean County): 3.65 in
Toms River (Ocean County): 3.48 in

Highest rain totals in Eastern Pennsylvania
Bristol (Bucks County): 4.07 in
Washington Crossing (Bucks County): 3.54 in
Hatboro (Montgomery County): 3.49 in
Sinking Spring (Berks County): 3.46 in
Reading (Berks County): 3.41 in
Media (Delaware County): 3.37 in
East Plainfield Township (Northampton County): 3.20 in
Nazareth (Northampton County): 2.54 in

kalleg wrote:
NBC Philadelphia shared these totals for yesterday's rainfall:

Highest rain totals in Central Jersey, South Jersey
Pennington (Mercer County): 7.76 in
Hopewell (Mercer County): 7.48 in
Delran (Burlington County): 7.03 in
Fairview (Burlington County): 6.09 in
Willingboro (Burlington County): 5.68 in
Ewing (Mercer County): 5.6 in
Lawrenceville (Mercer County): 4.37 in  
Camden (Camden County): 4.26 in
Cinnaminson (Burlington County): 4.15 - 5.67 in
Cherry Hill (Camden County): 3.94 in
Lakewood (Ocean County): 3.65 in
Toms River (Ocean County): 3.48 in

Highest rain totals in Eastern Pennsylvania
Bristol (Bucks County): 4.07 in  
Washington Crossing (Bucks County): 3.54 in
Hatboro (Montgomery County): 3.49 in
Sinking Spring (Berks County): 3.46 in
Reading (Berks County): 3.41 in
Media (Delaware County): 3.37 in
East Plainfield Township (Northampton County): 3.20 in
Nazareth (Northampton County): 2.54 in

Jesusssssssssss. I knew that line meant business last night, especially with the high PWAT values, but that’s crazy! I guess technically it was a P.R.E. now that I think about it, which are notorious for over-performing. P.R.E. stands for predecessor rain event, and it’s when you have an anomalous enhancement of precipitation well ahead of an advancing tropical cyclone, usually between an approaching frontal system (which we had) and the atmospheric moisture/latent heat transport and outflow associated with the tropical cyclone expanding north and east. This effectively squeezes the atmosphere and provides even more forcing for ascent, and when combined with the high moisture content (PWAT - precipitable water, which is a measure of how much liquid is present through the atmospheric column of it was all forced to condense and rain out), results in anomalous rain events, most commonly here in the Northeast.

Brother Scott, great prelude, and I wholeheartedly agree - not much sleep to be had these next few weeks at least lol I’ve been holding off on talking about the next system because I wasn’t sure when we would “close the book” on Debby, so to speak haha I’ll wait until Debby clears out, but the pattern for the next wave is……..interesting haha at least from this vantage point.