2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

rb924119 wrote:Big discussion coming from me this weekend - without burying the lead, I am VERY concerned about this next tropical cyclone. It's a delicate setup, so things can change, but yeah, I don't like the look of the pattern at all right now. Approximate date range would be between the 15th-20th.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I’m hoping to get my discussion done tomorrow night, folks. I work Saturdays until 9:30pm, and tomorrow I have a lot of work to get done around the house. But I’m getting more and more concerned with what I’m seeing, and today’s 18z GFS Op showed where I think this is headed, but i think it has room to come even further west. I’ll cover the details in my discussion, but please don’t mistake my quietness for a lack of interest or concern, because I’m definitely interested and concerned lol

Obv there is still a ton of time, but the blocky ness over the Hudson Bay is kind of pinning the trough just off the NE coast as the system enters the eastern Greater Antilles in about 3days or so give or take.  



This is going to suck the system northward.  Its starting to feel like we need a weaker system longer, and/or a track that is further south to miss that connection if this is going to have a chance at coming back towards the EC.  Otherwise it likely gains too much latitude being too far east near Burmuda ish before the next trough interaction occurs.  

For me at least this is starting to feel like an OTS soln.  The next 3days should tell alot.  If we have a stronger system in the black oval I think it recurves.  If its weaker and or in the yellow circle it has a chance to get a bit further west before the recurve N.  We shall see.

jmanley32 wrote:NHC agrees scott, recurve very early, I agree too. Should have Ernesto very soon to track either way and looks like a soaker for the islands inparticular Peurto Rico, gosh knows they do not do well with a ton rain.

rb924119 wrote:Video upload in progress. Fair warning, it's a longer one clocking in at 30 minutes, but I had a lot that I wanted to go over and explain. That said, I think it came out really well, and I will post it as soon as it's ready to go. Scott, I touch the same points that you highlighted above, so there's no need for me to post it a second time haha

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:NHC agrees scott, recurve very early, I agree too. Should have Ernesto very soon to track either way and looks like a soaker for the islands inparticular Peurto Rico, gosh knows they do not do well with a ton rain.

Not surprising - they're just going to follow guidance, especially at this range lol

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I’m hoping to get my discussion done tomorrow night, folks. I work Saturdays until 9:30pm, and tomorrow I have a lot of work to get done around the house. But I’m getting more and more concerned with what I’m seeing, and today’s 18z GFS Op showed where I think this is headed, but i think it has room to come even further west. I’ll cover the details in my discussion, but please don’t mistake my quietness for a lack of interest or concern, because I’m definitely interested and concerned lol

Obv there is still a ton of time, but the blocky ness over the Hudson Bay is kind of pinning the trough just off the NE coast as the system enters the eastern Greater Antilles in about 3days or so give or take.  



This is going to suck the system northward.  Its starting to feel like we need a weaker system longer, and/or a track that is further south to miss that connection if this is going to have a chance at coming back towards the EC.  Otherwise it likely gains too much latitude being too far east near Burmuda ish before the next trough interaction occurs.  

For me at least this is starting to feel like an OTS soln.  The next 3days should tell alot.  If we have a stronger system in the black oval I think it recurves.  If its weaker and or in the yellow circle it has a chance to get a bit further west before the recurve N.  We shall see.

More response to come later, but food for thought:




Look very closely at the dates on the first image……I’m not saying this is the same, because you know that I don’t like analoging to particular storms. But the similarities are pretty striking.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:NHC agrees scott, recurve very early, I agree too. Should have Ernesto very soon to track either way and looks like a soaker for the islands inparticular Peurto Rico, gosh knows they do not do well with a ton rain.

Not surprising - they're just going to follow guidance, especially at this range lol

true and fair enough lol. Why do they seem to only go by model guidance?

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I’m hoping to get my discussion done tomorrow night, folks. I work Saturdays until 9:30pm, and tomorrow I have a lot of work to get done around the house. But I’m getting more and more concerned with what I’m seeing, and today’s 18z GFS Op showed where I think this is headed, but i think it has room to come even further west. I’ll cover the details in my discussion, but please don’t mistake my quietness for a lack of interest or concern, because I’m definitely interested and concerned lol

Obv there is still a ton of time, but the blocky ness over the Hudson Bay is kind of pinning the trough just off the NE coast as the system enters the eastern Greater Antilles in about 3days or so give or take.  



This is going to suck the system northward.  Its starting to feel like we need a weaker system longer, and/or a track that is further south to miss that connection if this is going to have a chance at coming back towards the EC.  Otherwise it likely gains too much latitude being too far east near Burmuda ish before the next trough interaction occurs.  

For me at least this is starting to feel like an OTS soln.  The next 3days should tell alot.  If we have a stronger system in the black oval I think it recurves.  If its weaker and or in the yellow circle it has a chance to get a bit further west before the recurve N.  We shall see.

More response to come later, but food for thought:




Look very closely at the dates on the first image……I’m not saying this is the same, because you know that I don’t like analoging to particular storms. But the similarities are pretty striking.

is that the setup for sandy? Those dates correlate. Def not the same though like u said as sandy came out of the deep tropics not from the east.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Video upload in progress. Fair warning, it's a longer one clocking in at 30 minutes, but I had a lot that I wanted to go over and explain. That said, I think it came out really well, and I will post it as soon as it's ready to go. Scott, I touch the same points that you highlighted above, so there's no need for me to post it a second time haha

Ok, folks, here's the video:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1O2-WsluJ7ap72kPRbtgUKv3aCRqHBpXR/view?usp=sharing

Per usual, any questions or comments are welcome, and I will do my best to answer/respond. I hope that you all enjoy it, and thanks for watching!

First off appreciate the time to put out the video.  That said with all due respect, I disagree with a few things.  First I disagree with looking at ensembles regarding the pattern set up for the short term.  I think operational models have come into pretty good agreement on what's happening over the next 3.5days at H5.  That said there is of course still time for subtle shift which we all know can have large impacts still.  

Like you said there is kind of a weird for this time of year set up where we have a legit split flow pattern.  We have two jet streams splitting NA making the Atlantic progressive where they meet between the ridge and trough complex you pointed out in he vid.  



But the result of this is one split trough after another as the northern energy meets up with the southern stream energy.  Where they merge over the NW Atlantic, you get pieces of energy that cutoff and stay behind until the next bit of energy comes in from the west to move it along.  Then the next piece of trailing energy cuts off and rinse wash repeat.  

Here is euro initialization.  Our trop wave is headed towards the NE Caribbean where it will become Ernesto, and there is a cutt off Low centered jut N of the GL, BUT.....  




By Hour 33 as the system approaches the NE C. you can see there are three main shortwaves coming together.  The one over Novia Scotia is getting caught up in the progressive flow and will exit stage right, but a piece of the Northern most S/W will be held back and combine with and cuttoff with the western most S/W by day 3.    




By day 3.5 we now have a full cutoff trough sitting centered just off the NE Coast line.  There is pretty darn good consensus between Euro, GFS, and GEM regarding this.






The only way I see Ernesto making it back to the EC is if the modeling has this feature wrong, and it exits stage right, NOT LEFT like you suggest in the video, sooner which then would build the Atlantic ridge N and W ward as a result of the latent heat release, and in the wake of the departing cutoff low described.  If it retrogrades like you say it only further points the exit to Ernesto to the right.  Again the longer that feature hangs around the more north and E it gets, and once it gains too much Lat no matter what that next incoming trough from the western CONUS does, it will be too far east to be captured and pulled all the back into the east.  While I'm not totally ready to call it OTS, or perhaps still see a slight westward trend to the current forecast track, with the current consensus on this particular feature we are running out of time for enough change to the soln for it to matter for the C of the CONUS.  

rb924119 wrote:For what it’s worth, Bastardi just posted a write up outlining the same points that I talked about in my video, so at least I’m not the only one seeing it haha

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:For what it’s worth, Bastardi just posted a write up outlining the same points that I talked about in my video, so at least I’m not the only one seeing it haha

Is that write-up free or only on wxbell sub?