2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Dunnzoo wrote:Thanks Ray, but what about the Saharan dust blowing across the Atlantic? Do you see that decreasing in this time frame you are looking at?

I don't think it would be a factor in the sense that I don't think that the pattern will support much development before (east of) 60W longitude anyway. If something does develop, it will be much closer to the U.S. East Coast, and by that point, the impact of the dust/dry air will be pretty well mixed out and mitigated.

With the above said, modeling is not overly fond of my idea so far, but that doesn't mean that won't change.

rb924119 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:We may have something to track for ourselves during the last 7-10 days of July......

This is gaining momentum, in my opinion. Watch for models like the GFS and EURO Control to start picking up on this idea over the coming days. Preliminary track idea would be something that comes off Africa, has that classic slow west then west-northwestward movement as it gets closer, aimed at the Southeast Coast. Then, as it gets within, say, 100-250 miles makes a sharp bend back out to sea/parallel or quartering away from the Carolina Coasts, but then makes a northward turn toward New England. From there, the possibilities would diverge. Climatology would suggest a subsequent curve back out to sea, but I am not so sure it's that easy, and worry at least a partial bend back toward the Northeast Coast would be possible late. I don't think that it would be an overly strong system, but I can see a tropical storm or even category 1 as its peak intensity.

Please keep in mind that this is all extremely preliminary, but I feel that it's enough of a potential threat for me to point it out at this time. We will see how this evolves, but here's a quick rendition of my above thoughts:

Models have been hinting at this for the last couple of days. Today, they took bigger steps, and the Euro Op just showed it. Game on

What hath God wrought in three days with this, Ray?

dkodgis wrote:What hath God wrought in three days with this, Ray?

Models catching on now - latest 12z GFS:



Short-range guidance is also evolving similarly. Verbatim, this would be a hybrid storm, as it’s initially a baroclinic system that then tries to transition. The fact is, though, that my idea has merit, and there is at least some degree of phasing/interaction with a tropical wave that approaches the Southeast Coast.

For the record, I can see my green track being closer to the eventual outcome, as the overall evolution should end up occurring southwest of where current modeling suggests it will at this time.

12z Euro Ensemble:



All have a NNW trajectory.

30th-31st?

No, that’s the 28th into the 29th lol - Sunday/Monday

Latest NAM; there’s my tropical storm intensity lol

Pardon me. What is the bottom scale? Wind intensity?

RB stop being so cryptic...give us more..
LOL that is only a couple of days away..

dkodgis wrote:Pardon me. What is the bottom scale? Wind intensity?

Yup, in mph.

weatherwatchermom wrote:RB stop being so cryptic...give us more..
LOL that is only a couple of days away..

I really can’t at the moment because I’m at work, but I really don’t have much to add right now - models are trending toward my green track presented earlier based on the ideas presented with it. It’s not going to be a major event in the sense that’s there’s going to be widespread major damage or anything like that, but it’ll probably be similar to a good Nor’easter. And I think that it has room to come further west/northwest than guidance is currently indicating. I really like the idea of a landfall on/near Long Island. So Long Island Sound would have some surge with that, as would the South Shore if it landfalls there. It’ll be windy, but not like an actually hurricane.

real hot temps for 28th and 29th. Add in a nor'easter and the weekend and it is beer time for the board. Keg party on mom's boat.

dkodgis wrote:real hot temps for 28th and 29th. Add in a nor'easter and the weekend and it is beer time for the board. Keg party on mom's boat.

would love to have you all but the boat has been out of commission all season.. this is the worst year ever for us..

18z Euro Op just spit out a 55mph tropical storm/hybrid storm about 200 miles off the New Jersey coast lol it decays as it heads northward, but landfalls in Rhode Island, right near the Connecticut border.

Any new images to savor?

dkodgis wrote:Any new images to savor?

Not really, holding the course for now. Models are still back and forth on exact track, but the below image says to me that we should watch for a late shift further west with guidance and the eventual storm track, as there are more anomalously higher heights to the north and east of our storm of interest as opposed to north and west of it. We still have nearly two full days until game time though, so there’s plenty of room to come another 100 miles or so further west and in line with my earlier track. But that leeway also goes the other way too haha in short, though, my preliminary ideas and discussion are proving to have had merit, so I really can’t ask for much more than that; minimizing the error on the exact track is just a bonus lol

I haven’t taken a look at the next system yet, but there may be yet another, and more substantial system to track for our area after this one, but I’ll let this one get out of the way first. We’ll focus on the closest threat first before looking in the 7-10 day range.

rb924119 wrote:I haven’t taken a look at the next system yet, but there may be yet another, and more substantial system to track for our area after this one, but I’ll let this one get out of the way first. We’ll focus on the closest threat first before looking in the 7-10 day range.

For the record, though, my preliminary thinking on this is that it gets up to the latitude of about Virginia, then takes a hard right turn out to sea. But it would still be close enough to probably clip southern NJ with outer bands/wind, and certainly surge and rough surf. But I don’t think a direct hit is overly likely. It’s possible, but I don’t think it’s likely at this time. More to come on this over the next couple of days.

Don’t look now……today’s 12z Euro Op:



That’s a 966mb hurricane headed due north. Don’t worry, the right hook would not be long after that

See it going counter clockwise then disconnect/break off toward us. Just as Ray said

Thanks, Damian

Pretty cool to see gale warnings up this time of year for something not (entirely) tropical:



In summary, I think my ideas held up pretty well, and if this was able to transition into a fully tropical structure, my green track idea would have been almost spot on. However, because this is going remain a mostly baroclinic system, the surface feature is going to come ashore east of the mid-level (H7 and H5) lows. That said, those two circulations will pretty much move in line with my earlier ideas. So yeah, it wasn’t a perfect forecast, but from the lead time I put out my first posts, I’m pretty well pleased with how things turned out, I can’t lie haha

Onto the next one!

Looks like a tropical wave could impact Florida and the southeast coast this weekend, but may not get much stronger than a depression. Beyond that, doesn't look like there is a lot cooking in the tropics for the next 7-10 days or so which takes us almost into mid-August.
Often times August to the beginning of October is the most active part of the Atlantic season and most of the worst landfalling tropical systems in the eastern U.S have been during that time frame. So, there is plenty of time for things to kick into high gear and many threats still looming.  But I will say, two months into this tropical season, except for the unusual strength of Beryl, it has been pretty quiet (only up to the "C" storm in early August).  After Beryl in early July CSU forecasters said it was a harbinger of a "hyperactive" season ahead with a call for 25 named storms. Not a named storm since (Chris was co-terminus with Beryl and barely registered).
This is going to have to be a very active late August/September for the season to hit those rather lofty totals. There is another comment I'd like to make on this in terms of a broader point that may or may not even apply to this season, but I'll put it in banter at the end of the season.

sroc4 wrote:

billg315 wrote:Looks like a tropical wave could impact Florida and the southeast coast this weekend, but may not get much stronger than a depression. Beyond that, doesn't look like there is a lot cooking in the tropics for the next 7-10 days or so which takes us almost into mid-August.
Often times August to the beginning of October is the most active part of the Atlantic season and most of the worst landfalling tropical systems in the eastern U.S have been during that time frame. So, there is plenty of time for things to kick into high gear and many threats still looming.  But I will say, two months into this tropical season, except for the unusual strength of Beryl, it has been pretty quiet (only up to the "C" storm in early August).  After Beryl in early July CSU forecasters said it was a harbinger of a "hyperactive" season ahead with a call for 25 named storms. Not a named storm since (Chris was co-terminus with Beryl and barely registered).
This is going to have to be a very active late August/September for the season to hit those rather lofty totals. There is another comment I'd like to make on this in terms of a broader point that may or may not even apply to this season, but I'll put it in banter at the end of the season.

Things are just about ready to ramp up.  Peak activity is around Sept 10th so there's plenty of time to get things going.  We'll see.  

Yep, no doubt. Trust me, I could see a very busy period coming up in the late-August, September period, especially with the Saharan dust situation settling. But I think it will be tough at this point to get to 25 named storms which would have been an exceptionally busy season.