2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

rb924119 wrote:Tropical storm Ernesto, folks:

dkodgis wrote:Help me out please. I intuitively think the red on the outer edge is wind speed. I think the eyewall has the highest speeds.  So is the red exterior zone wind or heavy rain touching the coast?

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Lol, took me a second to see what it was he was looking at but good one. I dunno I am half and half with you and ray. Ernesto track has shifted a bit left nowhere near a sharp recorve OTS, looks like nova scotia could be in crosshairs. I was right aboutMajor status at some pt. NHC updated map shows that. Bermuda looks like a good hit is possible. Cape cod is in the 5-10% chance of TS winds so its not 0% chance. We will see in the next several days, Ernesto is moving very fast, which is not typical.

moleson wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Courtesy of JB:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Lol, took me a second to see what it was he was looking at but good one. I dunno I am half and half with you and ray. Ernesto track has shifted a bit left nowhere near a sharp recorve OTS, looks like nova scotia could be in crosshairs. I was right aboutMajor status at some pt. NHC updated map shows that. Bermuda looks like a good hit is possible. Cape cod is in the 5-10% chance of TS winds so its not 0% chance. We will see in the next several days, Ernesto is moving very fast, which is not typical.

The little western lean in the nhc track is nothing more than it losing the connection to the trough that’s currently dragging it northward and feeling the next one. The next trough is hot on the heals of the current one, but will be centered way to far north and east and progressive on its eastern flank. As soon as Ernesto feels the next trough, which won’t be long after the first one, it will get pulled towards it ever so slight, western track by NHC, before zipping OTS into the N Atlantic. I guess west of Novia Scotia isn’t entirely dead yet but my money is east of it.


In order for this to have threatened the east coast we really needed to see better spacing between troughs, second a little slower to arrive at the coast, and it needed to be centered further south say into the Tennessee valley. This would have allowed Ernesto’s latent heat realease to pump the Atlantic ridge, and the room for it to build in north of it. That combined with the trough centered over the tenn valley shifts the steering flow from prigressive OTS to back NW or even WNW.

Obviously this is all conjecture at this point since we can’t actually know, but I’ve been thinking about this too. My $.02 is this:

1. The shortwave cutting through the Hudson Bay ridge forced a progression in the pattern such that the rebounding ridge over the northwestern Atlantic can’t connect to the Hudson Bay block.

2. I think the angle of approach of the second trough is making an important difference. Again, this is all conjecture, but it’s an idea that I want to test in the future. For all intents and purposes, the second trough is coming in initially from the northwest of the tropical cyclone, then settles to the southwest of it as it it’s progressing northward. All else being equal, I think that if the incoming was able to dig in far enough so that it’s base was at a lower latitude than Ernesto as it would be coming north, and even better if it also had a negative tilt, it would have been much more effective at capturing the circulation and drawing it back to the northwest.

The above said, these are just my musings, and are no more viable than yours haha I am also not letting go just yet, as we’ve seen bigger swings inside of four days before, and it’s still a fluid enough situation to hold off on letting my guard down entirely yet. However, I’m not overly upset that I’d wrong this time for the obvious reasons, though, I am miffed in a sense that it looks like I’m about to bust AGAIN