2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

scott you were on this all along, nice work. Ray what can I say. you had the right idea just didn't fall into place if I read all this stuff correctly. Many more to come I am sure, if not we are seeing plenty pf comparable rains anyways to tropical systems!

Once Ernesto exits, nothing brewing for the next several days according to the NHC. That should keep us quiet heading into the last week of August.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:NOAA pretty bullish predictions!

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

I have been very busy however see some storms showing up for the FL panhandle in the LR GFS.

Just a quick comment on this post from back in June.  In one week it will be Sept 1st, meaning for all intents and purposes we will have approx 8 weeks to finish up the hurricane season.  Yes we can get Canes in Nov, but the odds drop off pretty quickly.  So whats the point?  

Well Back in June NOAA came out with their prediction for the season of 17-25 names sorms over windspeeds of 39mph, 8-13 of them Hurricanes, and 4-7 of the Canes being major.  We currently stand at only 5 named storms over 39mph, 2 TS and 3 of them Canes, and 1 of the 3 Canes was a Major.    

As it stands now it does not look likely that a tropical system will form in the next week; therefore,....



As of Sunday, Sept 1st, next week we will need to another 12-20 storms to form, 5-10 of them needing to be Canes, and 3-6 of those need to be majors, in order for NOAAs forecast to verify.  Put another way we need to average 1.5-2.5 Tropical systems a week for the next 8 weeks to verify.  

Now obv things can and likely will get active in a hurry at some point, but a lot will need to happen in a very condensed time frame to verify what appeared to be a pretty confident forecast early in the season.  There certainly were plenty of indicators to warrant the prediction of  above avg season, and of course the forecasts still vey will could verify.  We'll see.  

a week or two ago a new outlook was put out with far lower numbers by CSU also. We will see but yeah not gonna happen as originally thought.

sroc4 wrote:I'm thinking the SAL has been thwarting the tropical waves coming off the African Continent from getting going.  

Respectfully disagree. The African wave season has actually been very active when you look at the precipitation anomalies, however, as they've progressed westward into the Atlantic Basin, there hasn't been much support for enhanced development aside from the above-average ocean anomalies and the low-level pressure pattern. The pattern has been pretty void of large-scale forcing for ascent otherwise to the east of 60ºW longitude, and even through the MDR, as evidenced by positive velocity potential anomalies and omega anomalies there - and this fits with what we've seen development-wise. Beryl, Debby, and Ernesto all developed once west of 60ºW, and in coordination with the only favorable MJO rotations through phases which help to enhance vertical forcing for ascent through the tropical Atlantic. Now, we are back into generally more hostile phases which help to effectively cap tropical development except for closer to home. This isn't to say that we can't or won't get a classic long-tracked storm, but as you hinted at earlier, I think the chance of that is low, as I think that the MJO is going to start spending more time in and cycling through MJO phases 4-6 with more amplitude as we progress into Autumn, and seasonal feedbacks start taking place. That said, this also means that we have to watch for more storms to form much closer to home through tropical transition events, as fronts will be getting pushed into the sub-Tropics/northern Tropics, stall, and then have an anomalously cool high pressure park itself over the top, thereby enhancing and focusing low-level convergence. Given the expected blockiness, yeah, this season ain't over for the U.S., at least in my opinion haha

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:I'm thinking the SAL has been thwarting the tropical waves coming off the African Continent from getting going.  

Respectfully disagree. The African wave season has actually been very active when you look at the precipitation anomalies, however, as they've progressed westward into the Atlantic Basin, there hasn't been much support for enhanced development aside from the above-average ocean anomalies and the low-level pressure pattern. The pattern has been pretty void of large-scale forcing for ascent otherwise to the east of 60ºW longitude, and even through the MDR, as evidenced by positive velocity potential anomalies and omega anomalies there - and this fits with what we've seen development-wise. Beryl, Debby, and Ernesto all developed once west of 60ºW, and in coordination with the only favorable MJO rotations through phases which help to enhance vertical forcing for ascent through the tropical Atlantic. Now, we are back into generally more hostile phases which help to effectively cap tropical development except for closer to home. This isn't to say that we can't or won't get a classic long-tracked storm, but as you hinted at earlier, I think the chance of that is low, as I think that the MJO is going to start spending more time in and cycling through MJO phases 4-6 with more amplitude as we progress into Autumn, and seasonal feedbacks start taking place. That said, this also means that we have to watch for more storms to form much closer to home through tropical transition events, as fronts will be getting pushed into the sub-Tropics/northern Tropics, stall, and then have an anomalously cool high pressure park itself over the top, thereby enhancing and focusing low-level convergence. Given the expected blockiness, yeah, this season ain't over for the U.S., at least in my opinion haha

Keep in mind Ray the SAL post was posted back on August 19th and was in response to the post I made on August 8th, of which you promptly agreed with me I might add...lol.  The post from the 8th was regarding the potential for things to get active because of the MJO propagation through phases 2&3.  There was a nice little MJO pulse through 2 & 3 between about the 13th or so through about the 25th.  Only Ernesto produced during that time, but if you go back to the post from the morning of August 8th you see there were several robust African waves that literally just came off the WC of Africa and propagated devoid of moisture once they moved west away from the coast.  If you go back and look at the 200mb VV profiles for that time frame, while they weren't exactly the most robust for upper level divergence, but they were mildly anomalous for divergence rather than convergence during that time frame.  The 850-200mb shear for that window wasn't exactly horrendous either in the MDR and tropics as a whole.  So combined with the warm water, and lower and mid level pressure patterns there should have been more activity, IMHO of course, with some of those waves during that window, but there simply wasn't.  We certainly have seen things spin up in more hostile environments, But I think the SAL during that window, which was very prominent, thwarted any convective activity; preventing the engine if you will from firing up as they propagated through the MDR and beyond past 60w longitude, which ultimately led to an underwhelming result.  Since then Id certainly agree the overall pressure pattern and 200mb VV potential has been less than ideal.  .

Yeah, there's no doubt that the MJO propagation helped to spawn Debby (MJO Phases 8-1, and then Ernesto Phases 2-3). Referencing your nicely labeled image which outlined the next waves after Debby, Ernesto was the first wave:



Here's what the upper-level divergence looked like during the week of Debby's development:



As you can see, it was clearly favorable, but Ernesto was still in the subsidence region further east in the MDR. Fast forward a few days, here is the upper-level divergence during the last days of Debby and the beginning days of Ernesto:



As you can see, things were generally favorable for development across the MDR. However, if we fast forward another few days, which is approximately when your waves labeled 2 and 3 would be approaching and exiting the African coast, the MJO pulse decayed as it continued eastward, which allowed the upper-level divergence to shift eastward as well and essentially over mainland Africa with little protrusion further westward ever since. This effectively shut down any hope for those two trailing waves, as well following waves, to develop, as the bulk of the MDR has been in a strongly subsident regime ever since:



In retrospect, I think we actually agree, but have stated it differently. You're saying the SAL is the cause for the suppressed activity. I'm saying it's been an unfavorable upper-level pattern - the fact is they are working constructively, and really are one in the same. The SAL is always present, but has been countered over mainland Africa thanks to the forcing for ascent and enhanced waves there. However, the anomalous subsidence further west over the MDR is no doubt enhancing the effects as that SAL is advected westward, since the subsidence is enhancing the warming/drying of the airmass beneath it.

GFS has a beast cat 4/5 off EC in fantasy land, slams carolinas into midatlantic on 18z run, no stance to put in this of course but it does follow climatology but also storms off EC more than not are fish even if they do develop.

The folks who insist on so aggressively pushing this narrative have become a parody of themselves. This is almost laughable, if it wasn’t maddening. When all the forecasters early this year called for a “hyperactive” tropical season with 25 named storms, the climate change alarmists in the media were quick to say “well this is another example of climate change. It will mean more active and destructive tropical seasons.” Now, that we are having an unusually quiet season . . . Guess what? Climate change is causing quiet tropical seasons too!! Lol. Wherever you stand on climate change, human influence on climate change, impacts of climate change . . . For the love of God, PLEASE stop pointing to individual weather events or specific seasonal weather as evidence of your theories. It’s not how it works, and it looks ridiculous. Changes in the climate are measured over dozens if not hundreds of years, not two months weather.

I’m sold. It’s zipped

billg315 wrote:The folks who insist on so aggressively pushing this narrative have become a parody of themselves. This is almost laughable, if it wasn’t maddening. When all the forecasters early this year called for a “hyperactive” tropical season with 25 named storms, the climate change alarmists in the media were quick to say “well this is another example of climate change. It will mean more active and destructive tropical seasons.” Now, that we are having an unusually quiet season . . . Guess what? Climate change is causing quiet tropical seasons too!! Lol. Wherever you stand on climate change, human influence on climate change, impacts of climate change . . . For the love of God, PLEASE stop pointing to individual weather events or specific seasonal weather as evidence of your theories. It’s not how it works, and it looks ridiculous. Changes in the climate are measured over dozens if not hundreds of years, not two months weather.

So many comments to make, not enough time haha for starters, though, the discussion between myself and Scott is a great starting point as to the reasons why. I think another is the distortion of the low-level pressure field because of how warm the Atlantic is, and is an idea that Bastardi has often proposed (though I thought about this separately from him initially).

This said, we cannot sleep on this season, especially for threats that develop in close to the mainland. When you have repeated cool outbreaks this time of year that drive cold fronts into the northern sub-tropics which can then sit and fester beneath the big sprawling highs that come across the north enhancing and focusing convergence over the frontal boundaries, and a trailing trough over the southern CONUS adding ventilation, it’s a classic pattern for tropical transition events. Notice we had FOUR separate spin-ups all around the US Gulf and East Coast the last few days. Even though none were named, the one in the Gulf could be next week, and the others are decent nor’easters, one of which is hitting Nova Scotia. And this pattern is going to be repeated multiple times in the coming weeks, and it’s a very similar pattern to what we saw during Debby and Ernesto. Do we shouldn’t be surprised if we see some scary individual runs for the Eastern Seaboard going forward, as models struggle to resolve the delicate interactions in their extended ranges.

sroc4 wrote:By mechanisms outlined by Rb in prev posts,(ie: residual energy left behind after the passing of a frontal boundary), I think it pertinent to pay attention to possible tropical or extra tropical development off the EC some time in the next 4-6days or so; the likes of which MIGHT affect our area thereafter.  

That is all

Indeed

GFS and Euro showing a tropical or subtropical system off the EC around 15th/16th.

Well, we have Hurricane Francine, headed closer to NOLA and my nephew and his family. My niece-in-law was born and raised there, so they aren't concerned.....yet. Watching this storm, and also keeping an eye on California Airport Fire as it is close to my niece's place.... no mandatory evacuation for her yet. Too bad we can't send the water west.

Area of SE coast has been marked, currently 30% chance in 7 day. Def something to watch.

GFS and CMC sniffing out a situation for FL round the 25-27