Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 19, 2016 11:48 am

I will be plowing until May with these runs coast looks to stay all snow

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 19, 2016 11:49 am

lglickman1 wrote:all these maps are 10:1?

Yes.

by Guest Tue Jan 19, 2016 11:51 am

THE CMC just output 3"+ QPF over 30 hours for the entire area. All snow. eVEN AT 10:1 WHICH IS LOW you do the math!!

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 11:55 am

Frank what do you think the ratio will be for my area, or on the whole the whole area sorry not a IMBY question, overall areawide? Might u be changing that scroll to say roidzilla if this keeps up?

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 11:57 am

10:1 ratios because the high winds will kill the dendritic. I think further inland from west NJ into PA they'll be 15:1. But not until the latter part of the storm.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 11:59 am

Frank_Wx wrote:10:1 ratios because the high winds will kill the dendritic. I think further inland from west NJ into PA they'll be 15:1. But not until the latter part of the storm.

okay thx, odd that the snow map posted and wxbell are slightly different. wxbell bit lower but only by inches.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 19, 2016 11:59 am

Cmc has 14in by 1pm sat in NYC. This also includes nenj, western li and lower westchester - MOMMA MIA with 14 hours left to snow

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:01 pm

not even close to 3 inches qpf where did u see this syo? We see about 18-20 nyc area.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 17 Cmc_to10

by **jake732** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:01 pm

Mugs what's about coast of Jersey?

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:06 pm

jake732 wrote:Mugs what's about coast of Jersey?

Jake on these latest runs we get a lot of snow. These runs where colder as well I wouldn't worry to much about mixing we look to get the brunt of it. Snow,wind coastal flooding

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:07 pm

Looks like a good 16"-20" for me here, glad I went food shopping this morning! Nice to see some consistency with the models instead of having the usual outlier and wondering who is right.

by **Radz** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:09 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Looks like a good 16"-20" for me here, glad I went food shopping this morning! Nice to see some consistency with the models instead of having the usual outlier and wondering who is right.

I'll feel better if the Euro joins in!

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The great Paul Kocin compares this to 1996

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

He mentions the occlusion factor in his first paragraph as a part of the equation. Its all coming together boys and girls. Still minor details in timing and placement which could have major impacts for totals in your backyard. Still many model runs to go, plus we haven't had any input from the s/r high res models yet. Still some work to do, but confidence cont to increase.

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:13 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Looks like a good 16"-20" for me here, glad I went food shopping this morning! Nice to see some consistency with the models instead of having the usual outlier and wondering who is right.

I'll try to Thursday for the bread and milk, and snow snacks

by **oldtimer** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:17 pm

Thanks Scroc Hope we get 20" in our back yards

T

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:17 pm

Slightly concerned by the EURO/UK jumping further east last night. Still not 100% on board this volatile setup.... worried about a sudden trend so crossing my fingers it budges at 12z or tonight and the GFS/CMC is right. (6z GFS was a jog east too, positive trough and 12z wobbled a bit back NW)

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:17 pm

RJB8525 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Looks like a good 16"-20" for me here, glad I went food shopping this morning! Nice to see some consistency with the models instead of having the usual outlier and wondering who is right.

I'll try to Thursday for the bread and milk, and snow snacks

Do not wait that long, its already all over major media people will start packing stores tomorrow if not today.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Looks like a good 16"-20" for me here, glad I went food shopping this morning! Nice to see some consistency with the models instead of having the usual outlier and wondering who is right.

I'll try to Thursday for the bread and milk, and snow snacks

Do not wait that long, its already all over major media people will start packing stores tomorrow if not today.

Not quite sure why people still do this... Unless your fridge and pantry are totally empty, why go into a frenzy? Roads are pretty much only bad when snow is actually falling, then they clean it up fairly quickly. Only storms of 20 or more may cause things to back up for maybe an extra day or so but havent seen those numbers around here since 2003.

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:28 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Looks like a good 16"-20" for me here, glad I went food shopping this morning! Nice to see some consistency with the models instead of having the usual outlier and wondering who is right.

I'll try to Thursday for the bread and milk, and snow snacks

Do not wait that long, its already all over major media people will start packing stores tomorrow if not today.

Not quite sure why people still do this... Unless your fridge and pantry are totally empty, why go into a frenzy? Roads are pretty much only bad when snow is actually falling, then they clean it up fairly quickly. Only storms of 20 or more may cause things to back up for maybe an extra day or so but havent seen those numbers around here since 2003.

My regular food shopping day is Saturday, so I needed to go today due to my schedule this week. Also I have a family of 5 including 3 young adults who eat me out of house and home! Razz

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:29 pm

The GEFS members are leaning heavily west. Some extreme south outliers skew the mean.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 17 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_18

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 17 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_18

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:31 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The GEFS members are leaning heavily west. Some extreme south outliers skew the mean.

This translates to more snow and wind?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:32 pm

Amount of suppressed members increased, 12z GEFS...

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=276535

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:32 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Looks like a good 16"-20" for me here, glad I went food shopping this morning! Nice to see some consistency with the models instead of having the usual outlier and wondering who is right.

I'll try to Thursday for the bread and milk, and snow snacks

Do not wait that long, its already all over major media people will start packing stores tomorrow if not today.

Not quite sure why people still do this... Unless your fridge and pantry are totally empty, why go into a frenzy? Roads are pretty much only bad when snow is actually falling, then they clean it up fairly quickly. Only storms of 20 or more may cause things to back up for maybe an extra day or so but havent seen those numbers around here since 2003.

My regular food shopping day is Saturday, so I needed to go today due to my schedule this week. Also I have a family of 5 including 3 young adults who eat me out of house and home!

I do not get it either but with big wind in the forecast I guess we could be a bit concerned for power issues but perishables doesn't make sense then. I for one never do a good shopping and need to if I am going to be inside all weekend. But that's just bc I eat out a lot more than in.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:32 pm

jake732 wrote:Mugs what's about coast of Jersey?

From the latest runs you guys look good for all snow and the winds (trop force) and coastal flooding and a full moon and ..................it is going to be intense along the NJ coastline. You guys will fair well in the snow dept. Take video and pictures of this one.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:33 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The GEFS members are leaning heavily west. Some extreme south outliers skew the mean.

This translates to more snow and wind?

Looks worse to me than say yesterday's runs.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:33 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Amount of suppressed members increased, 12z GEFS...

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=276535

oy that does not look good frank please tell me this is not headed in a bad direction.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:36 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The GEFS members are leaning heavily west. Some extreme south outliers skew the mean.

This translates to more snow and wind?

Yes for NYC on north and west, but mixing issues could be a problem along immediate coast although a strengthening dynamic low could help to damper that problem.

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