Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

by Snowfall Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:29 pm

Bernie said yesterday where a storm comes in on the west and where it leaves on the east is around the same latitude so I would think the euro is way to south. What time is the next trust worthy model come out

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:29 pm

algae888 wrote:jman dc went from 30" to 15 on the euro from 00z to 12z. model is probably correcting qpf and will probably correct in other areas also.

I thought I saw a map where dc had 36-48 just a little while ago. This has just become frustrating as of the 12z. One run and they felt waqs hiccup okay but two and now pro mets twc etc are jumping ship not a good sign.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:29 pm

As Frank stated, we ALL knew that if this thing was going to trend anywhere, it would head south and east because of the Pacific. Does it stink to see this? Absolutely. But we cannot control the weather, and we have to take what we get. We also cannot start losing it because of what we're seeing today. Hell, how many storms did we track last year where the models were adjusting DURING the events??? If nothing else, and I don't see a single flake of snow in NE PA from this, in the winter that we have had so far, I'm just happy that we had some kind of excitement for once. I mean come on; for the first real threat to be something that could possibly be one of the biggest storms the East Coast has seen in years, and being held in the company of some of the most prolific snow storms to be recorded, it ain't half bad. Enjoy it for what it is; a game. It's painstaking I admit, but think of the excitement and the FUN we have had with this one up to this point.....that's what I live for. If we get the delivery then that's a bonus. But for goodness sakes, just enjoy the ride folks, nothing we can do to change it, so enjoy what ya got.

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:33 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Rayno says no panic yet. He saw the EURO and even though he believes it's the best model he does not trust it and thinks it corrects north. He says tomorrow is the day to rejoice or jump off the cliff.

Why does he not trust it though? I definitely think it is a feasible solution. We just have to hope the other models are handling the upper energy better.

You should watch the video Frank. This is one of his best. Seriously.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/channels/raynob

Sory Frank I posted this when I was only halfway through the video. He never actually goes into detail on why he thinks Euro shifts north.

by pkmak Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:40 pm

I have been watching you guys for years. All of you have done a great job on these storms. I am still learning and do not post much, but just had an interesting read and figured I share a link for others like me still learning and trying to figure out the different models, maps runs etc.

http://www.energyblogs.com/weather/index.cfm/2014/1/6/Differences-Between-the-GFS-and-ECMWF-Weather-Models

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:42 pm

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Rayno says no panic yet. He saw the EURO and even though he believes it's the best model he does not trust it and thinks it corrects north. He says tomorrow is the day to rejoice or jump off the cliff.

Why does he not trust it though? I definitely think it is a feasible solution. We just have to hope the other models are handling the upper energy better.

You should watch the video Frank. This is one of his best. Seriously.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/channels/raynob

Sory Frank I posted this when I was only halfway through the video. He never actually goes into detail on why he thinks Euro shifts north.

Well, he's a good Met so at least.

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:44 pm

Rb if you are reading please check your PMs. Thanks

by **algae888** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:jman dc went from 30" to 15 on the euro from 00z to 12z. model is probably correcting qpf and will probably correct in other areas also.

I thought I saw a map where dc had 36-48 just a little while ago. This has just become frustrating as of the 12z. One run and they felt waqs hiccup okay but two and now pro mets twc etc are jumping ship not a good sign.

jman the problem is that when people see 2-3 or in this case 4 feet of snow on guidance 4 days out they believe it will happen and in there backyard. tell me how many times has this happened esp in dc? 0 in dc and a few times in other areas of the mid atlantic and nyc metro. the most likely scenario with this storm is a 1-2 ' snow storm for some and 6-12 for those out of the bulls eye. we know a storm is coming how this all plays out still to be determined

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:46 pm

18z NAM would look like GFS. H5 low begins tracking N&E instead of S&E like EURO shows.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:49 pm

pkmak wrote:I have been watching you guys for years. All of you have done a great job on these storms. I am still learning and do not post much, but just had an interesting read and figured I share a link for others like me still learning and trying to figure out the different models, maps runs etc.

http://www.energyblogs.com/weather/index.cfm/2014/1/6/Differences-Between-the-GFS-and-ECMWF-Weather-Models

Hi Pkmak thanks for posting.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:50 pm

rb924119 wrote:As Frank stated, we ALL knew that if this thing was going to trend anywhere, it would head south and east because of the Pacific. Does it stink to see this? Absolutely. But we cannot control the weather, and we have to take what we get. We also cannot start losing it because of what we're seeing today. Hell, how many storms did we track last year where the models were adjusting DURING the events??? If nothing else, and I don't see a single flake of snow in NE PA from this, in the winter that we have had so far, I'm just happy that we had some kind of excitement for once. I mean come on; for the first real threat to be something that could possibly be one of the biggest storms the East Coast has seen in years, and being held in the company of some of the most prolific snow storms to be recorded, it ain't half bad. Enjoy it for what it is; a game. It's painstaking I admit, but think of the excitement and the FUN we have had with this one up to this point.....that's what I live for. If we get the delivery then that's a bonus. But for goodness sakes, just enjoy the ride folks, nothing we can do to change it, so enjoy what ya got.

Nice post. Mother Nature has her own way of working.

But enough of this depression talk!!

Lets go GFS!!! America needs a win badly. The EURO has owned you for the last 100 years. DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT

by pkmak Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:54 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
pkmak wrote:I have been watching you guys for years. All of you have done a great job on these storms. I am still learning and do not post much, but just had an interesting read and figured I share a link for others like me still learning and trying to figure out the different models, maps runs etc.

http://www.energyblogs.com/weather/index.cfm/2014/1/6/Differences-Between-the-GFS-and-ECMWF-Weather-Models

Hi Pkmak thanks for posting.

Your welcome Frank, thanks to you and everyone else for all of your hard work and keeping yourselves mentally stable with all these ping pong models all these years.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:02 pm

I'm not bright enough to offer any great insight here. All I can offer is the Euro had me in a 30-40 inch bullseye 24 hours before Juno. I received 3.5 inches. The point being, It's not perfect unless it forgot to divide by 10 that day.

by **algae888** Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:03 pm

im hearing the 12z para gfs just came in and it's a total bomb for us 2=3" liquid. I do not have any maps though

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:05 pm

Dont want to hear any talk about the NAM at 84, we're not grasping that.... We know how that turns out and the biases it ALWAYS has.

by Guest Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:07 pm

rb924119 wrote:As Frank stated, we ALL knew that if this thing was going to trend anywhere, it would head south and east because of the Pacific. Does it stink to see this? Absolutely. But we cannot control the weather, and we have to take what we get. We also cannot start losing it because of what we're seeing today. Hell, how many storms did we track last year where the models were adjusting DURING the events??? If nothing else, and I don't see a single flake of snow in NE PA from this, in the winter that we have had so far, I'm just happy that we had some kind of excitement for once. I mean come on; for the first real threat to be something that could possibly be one of the biggest storms the East Coast has seen in years, and being held in the company of some of the most prolific snow storms to be recorded, it ain't half bad. Enjoy it for what it is; a game. It's painstaking I admit, but think of the excitement and the FUN we have had with this one up to this point.....that's what I live for. If we get the delivery then that's a bonus. But for goodness sakes, just enjoy the ride folks, nothing we can do to change it, so enjoy what ya got.

respectfully disagree. It's because of how disappointing this winter has been that this is potentially such a devastating reversal. And if areas south of us cash in big time while we get very little it makes it even harder to swallow. Hopefully just a blip. I'll leave it to the pro's to decipher.

by **algae888** Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:07 pm

map...

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 22 GFS-PARA_QPFtotal_ne4_f144

by **Vinnydula** Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:08 pm

What is the euro Para if I can ask?

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:08 pm

Well we have a name at least! Winter storm Jonas! either way good or bad lol

by Guest Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:09 pm

Frank using the 18z Not A Model 3+ days out. Desperate times.

by **Quietace** Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:10 pm

Vinnydula wrote:What is the euro Para if I can ask?

9km Euro with upgraded physics that will replace the current ECMWF in the coming months.

by **billg315** Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:12 pm

This may be of less interest for contest purposes given some recent model trends, but TWC just named the system in the Midwest currently "Ilias" which means our storm this weekend will be Jonas. If it's our storm.