01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

Frank_Wx wrote:Hour 48 H5 begins to elongate. Dang

I can't see this happening........... CF issues, even some pros don't think so.

We are now nearing a 30 hr or less forecast to start time this is nuts!

Final forecast 0-24" area wide f it and f this.

The gradient is stronger this run. Literally 30 miles means difference between 5 inches and Godzilla.

This is model chaos.

This storm is going to break hearts.

Frank_Wx wrote:This storm is going to break hearts.

Well unless the SR are right, which I am starting to wonder if they are.

LI looks to be the cutoff. I just went from 2 models showing 2 feet+ and the SREFS showing 16" to barely any QPF. and a 2-4" solution. WTF!!!!!!!it's 2016

I knew I shouldn't have watched. My fault.

GFS and EURO say February 2010 repeat, NAM says blizzard of 1996, big friggin difference there at least for the northern half of the viewing area snow total wise and windwise as well (would be stronger).

still nails the jersey shore

I'm sorry but that map doesn;t even make sense. What the F is going on? I can;t even deal with these swings.

[quote="jmanley32"]

Frank_Wx wrote:This storm is going to break hearts.

Well unless the SR are right, which I am starting to wonder if they are.[/quote)
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA GETS 45-48" SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A lot of people are saying the GFS has major CFI.

This gives me about 6-7". Despite the fact that this would be a decent storm under other circumstances, I have to admit seeing 20-22" just 40 miles south would make a 7" storm a bit disappointing.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Final forecast 0-24" area wide f it and f this.

100 % agree that's been what I have been telling everyone since Monday. It sucks the models don't agree but this is why Weather is exiting there is always a mystery and a chance for an amazing present. We all hate the disappointments but that what makes mother natures gifts so much better.

rb924119 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I knew I shouldn't have watched. My fault.

Lmfao Fastest emotional turnaround in history.....NAM -  GFS -

Same with last night.

up down all around well trying to stay positive but starting to lose it I thought this would come more north with higher totals and it looks worse then before!!  BOY IT WAS EXCITING WITH THE NAM GOOD NIGHT TO ALL!!!

Frank_Wx wrote:

That chase has been consistent exept the 18z, but it just doesnt make sense. Do you have any insight or is this a crapshoot at this point?

syosnow94 wrote:LI looks to be the cutoff.  I just went from 2 models showing 2 feet+ and the SREFS showing 16" to barely any QPF. and a 2-4" solution.  WTF!!!!!!!it's 2016

I just went from 00z NAM giving me 2 ft to 00Z GFS giving me ZERO. I swear I will hate forever the model that is wrong.

The record snowfall in a full season in Richmond Virginia is 28 inches, that map they get 40 from one storm. I'm not buying any solutions yet.