Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

by **lglickman1** Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:57 pm

does srcoc's understanding of what going on explain what we are seeing here?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:57 pm

The record snowfall in a full season in Richmond Virginia is 28 inches, that map they get 40 from one storm. I'm not buying any solutions yet.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:58 pm

snow247 wrote:A lot of people are saying the GFS has major CFI.

If I hear CFI ONE MORE TIME...

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:58 pm

Would be awesome to see the CMC come in and say "F you GFS"

by **2004blackwrx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:59 pm

so about 100 mile difference between the 2 models. which in the grand scheme of things is small makes all the difference in cheers

vs

by Deweydave Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:59 pm

Local mets up in CT say GFS had issues tonight

by **crippo84** Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:59 pm

A lot of people have been saying GFS CF issues every time it shows this solution. I think we need to accept that it could be the correct solution. I hope not. But let's be real here.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Would be awesome to see the CMC come in and say "F you GFS"

That would be a silver lining. CMC is soon right.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:00 pm

crippo84 wrote:A lot of people have been saying GFS CF issues every time it shows this solution. I think we need to accept that it could be the correct solution. I hope not. But let's be real here.

I think it IS the right solution.....at least partially.

by **devsman** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:00 pm

GFS HAS ISSUES? WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? IT HAS ONE JOB! THAT JOB...NOT TO HAVE ISSUES 24 HOURS BEFORE A STORM!

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:00 pm

Maybe the sampling from the baloons didnt make it for GFS? And still have the recon.

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:01 pm

crippo84 wrote:A lot of people have been saying GFS CF issues every time it shows this solution. I think we need to accept that it could be the correct solution. I hope not. But let's be real here.

No one knows a thing. I go back to what my dad always says..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:01 pm

The stupid run just showed 40 inches of snow from one storm in a city that's never seen 30 inches in one year (Richmond).

It definitely has issues. WTF!!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:01 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Maybe the sampling from the baloons didnt make it for GFS? And still have the recon.

It had everything.

by Abba701 Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:01 pm

1. When is the CMC?
2.Is the GFS having problems or is it right?
3.What are the odds of Central Park getting at least 3 inches which would at least not make this the most snowless winter?
4.You never know? Maybe some bands of 1-2 inches per hour will show up and increase the totals.On this Latest GFS Southern NJ gets 2 feet but less in Philly

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:01 pm

rb924119 wrote:
crippo84 wrote:A lot of people have been saying GFS CF issues every time it shows this solution. I think we need to accept that it could be the correct solution. I hope not. But let's be real here.

I think it IS the right solution.....at least partially.

I do not want to say this but you are the met.

by **devsman** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:02 pm

LEE...CH.7...TREND LOWER HAS STOPPED>>>MAY HAVE TO RAISE LEVELS

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:02 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The stupid run just showed 40 inches of snow from one storm in a city that's never seen 30 inches in one year (Richmond).

It definitely has issues. WTF!!!!

40+ 3 times their annual snowfall in 1 storm!

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:02 pm

This gradient is insane!! We have a long way to go. Wow.

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 14 GFS24precip00054

by **billg315** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:02 pm

I'm retreating back to (reaffirming?) my opinion expressed this afternoon: Until I see the NAM collapsing toward these southern solutions, I have to believe the truth lies somewhere between the NAM and the GFS. Maybe not 20-30" as far north as North Jersey and the Hudson Valley, but perhaps 4-8" in those areas and a foot or so for Mercer-Somerset-Morris-Middlesex-Hudson-NYC? I don't know.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:02 pm

Total model chaos has ensued. Let's see what the CMC and EURO has to say. I've got a feeling though there will be the same outcome as the GFS just showed. stuned disbelief.

by **2004blackwrx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:03 pm

I understand saying a model had issues this run. But that would mean the GFS had issue the last 24 hours of runs. Meanwhile Nam keeps getting better, this storm is blowing my mind like boneless chicken

by **Joe Snow** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:03 pm

Year after year these models can't handle BIG storms, it's 2016 when will we have something reliable so I guess the forecast is............

I'll tell you later after the storm passes...

I do not want to be a Pro met right now how do you even try to get this story right

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:04 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:I understand saying a model had issues this run. But that would mean the GFS had issue the last 24 hours of runs. Meanwhile Nam keeps getting better, this storm is blowing my mind like boneless chicken

18z GFS was actually pretty nice.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:04 pm

00z GEFS should be telling too.

by Abba701 Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:05 pm

What happened Frank this run seemed pretty good and you said it was north?

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:05 pm

Joe Snow wrote:Year after year these models can't handle BIG storms, it's 2016 when will we have something reliable so I guess the forecast is............

I'll tell you later after the storm passes...

I do not want to be a Pro met right now how do you even try to get this story right

I agree, but you can't say CFI when a model shows what you don't want to see and jump all over another model when it crushes you!!

I wanted to believe the short-range models soooooooo badly!

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