Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:13 am

Eric Holthaus:

"NWS rejects the NAM… and I will too.
Sorry, NYC… this is D.C.’s storm."

by Abba701 Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:15 am

It's funny how the 18z GFS woke some people up.Will see if the 00z EURO does the same

by Abba701 Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:15 am

I doubt it will.I agree that it's MID Atlantic storm

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:17 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Eric Holthaus:

"NWS rejects the NAM… and I will too.
Sorry, NYC… this is D.C.’s storm."

Well, the modeling has shown a lot of consistency the last few days for that DC and South Jersey area.NAM a total outlier IMHO.Them's the breaks, saw this in the snowmageddon year, it happens.

NWS not buying NAM in my area.Still 2 to 5 inches and I'll be happy to see that based on the GFS.

by **Joe Snow** Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:17 am

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016012203/east/hrrr_2016012203_ref_east.gif

Latest HRRR Loop, looks like it's heading in a NNE direction

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:20 am

Joe Snow wrote:http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016012203/east/hrrr_2016012203_ref_east.gif

Latest HRRR Loop, looks like it's heading in a NNE direction

True, up to that point.Then that shift due E seen on GFS will occur pulling the rug out from under my area (HV NY).

by **Joe Snow** Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:25 am

docstox12 wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016012203/east/hrrr_2016012203_ref_east.gif

Latest HRRR Loop, looks like it's heading in a NNE direction

True, up to that point.Then that shift due E seen on GFS will occur pulling the rug out from under my area (HV NY).

You really think so?

Not to sure about that.........

READY SET GO...................

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:27 am

We'll see, that was what I think GFS sees.

This is nowcast IMHO.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:28 am

NWS lowered NYC to 6-10 inches from 8-12.

Sounds like they put no value on any of the short range models. Why bother with them if that's the case?

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:38 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:NWS lowered NYC to 6-10 inches from 8-12.

Sounds like they put no value on any of the short range models. Why bother with them if that's the case?

They lowered it this afternoon, nothing new.

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:38 am

We'll find out soon enough about that, CP.The designers of the NAM should be keelhauled if we bust out here after seeing that 30 inch plus snow totals it spit out a little while ago for us.

by **Joe Snow** Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:48 am

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif?1453441361166

Thunder Snow?

by **Vinnydula** Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:06 am

Euro?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:08 am

Vinnydula wrote:Euro?

Way ots

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:09 am

Or at least it appears that way

48

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2016012200®ion=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=048

Only other frame I see is 24 where its forming over outer banks NC.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:10 am

Well folks, it appears the storm needs to thread the needle, shes a nowcaster, the models are lost and will never agree with eachother...

by **Joe Snow** Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:11 am

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 18 Euro_a10

Runs out East

by Abba701 Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:14 am

I want to see a snowmap.

by snowlover 12345 Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:14 am

Time to following this thing on radar. Models are useless

by Abba701 Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:15 am

What would Euro mean ?

by Abba701 Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:21 am

Maybe the short range models are right

by snowlover 12345 Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:22 am

Abba701 wrote:Maybe the short range models are right

if god loves us then yes they are

by Abba701 Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:24 am

Wow it looked like this euro misses everyone except Virginia and DC.In a way let that happen.I think maybe people should miss it vs only a few cities.

by snowlover 12345 Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:25 am

i hear the RPM was a big hit for NYC

by **pdubz** Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:36 am

Wait but everyone on Twitter is saying the euro isn't working and it won't load

by snowlover 12345 Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:47 am

Very confused w the euro right now, hearing it was a better run for NYC but also hearing the run never happened and won't be coming out tonight

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:48 am

THE EURO CRASHED hahahaha

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