Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:19 am

SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...
SANDY HOOK...TRENTON
834 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW... GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
RESULTING IN TIMES OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 14 INCHES... WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS INLAND.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY TO 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL.
THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WET FOR A TIME SATURDAY ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHOVELING OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE WITH PHYSICAL AILMENTS. SNOW WILL CLING TO
WIRES AND TREES WHICH COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES. ROADS
WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO
3 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER BANDS.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:20 am

BOOYASHHHH F YES PEEPS THE NORTH SHALL win again!!!! good trend on this - precip is wacky a bit but h5 tucked teh slp it into teh coast more!!

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 29 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f27

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 29 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f27

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 29 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f30

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 29 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f33

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 29 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f36

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 29 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f39

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:21 am

12z CMC total snow:

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 29 Snowfall_total_accum_lwwratio_NECONUS_hr045

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:22 am

rb924119 wrote:12z CMC total snow:

WOW!!!! Looook at how the 20" snows are almost into NYC!!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:23 am

rb924119 wrote:12z CMC total snow:

Nooice

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:25 am

The 12z GGEM has almost 2.00 QPF FOR NYC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:26 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The 12z GGEM has almost 2.00 QPF FOR NYC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

FINALLY, lol I've been waiting for you to scream for the past 10 min!!!!!

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:27 am

TWC also put me in 8-12 now!

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:28 am

Euro is next up and I feel confident it bring us the goods - u watch - why, more time to digest the synoptic set up -IMHO.

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:29 am

With the north push do winds go with them also? would NNJ be put into a blizzard warning?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:29 am

BASED ON TRENDS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, THE SNOW LOOKS TO COME IN FASTER. THE WORDING IN THE
WINTER HEADLINES WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF THE SNOW. A SPS WAS ISSUED FOR SOUTH OF PHILLY AS WE ARE
PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH THE SNOW STARTING DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE. ONCE THE SNOW STARTS, IT WON`T TAKE
LONG FOR IT TO BECOME MODERATE TO EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY IN INTENSITY.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RATES TO APPROACH 1"/HR IN THE DELMARVA
AND SOUTHERN-MOST PART OF NJ AT THE TAIL END OF RUSH HOUR.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:31 am

Can someone answer this please do things for Cnj coast look to be getting more snow.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:31 am

NOTICE ON THE SLP WHAT HE CMC DID HERE BY JUMPING TO THE CONVECTION BUT NOT AS MUCH - IT CAME FUTHER NORTH WITH A TUCKED SLP THEN JUMPED -

IF SHE DOESN'T DO THIS THEN KABOOOOOOOOMMM HAPPENS FOR THE WHOLE MEMBERSHIP HERE

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 29 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f30

LOOK AT THE TWO BLACK CIRCLES - IF THEY STAY CONDENSED AS ONE AND HUG TEH COAST THEN HOT GIGGITY!!

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:32 am

RJB8525 wrote:With the north push do winds go with them also? would NNJ be put into a blizzard warning?

IF SO THEY DO IN THEIR AFTERNOON UPDATE - WAIT ON EURO IS THERE THINKING I AM SURE!

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:33 am

Sweet, almost in the 20 inches myself, about 15 miles more! CMC rocks,ashoot all models are starting to rock.

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:33 am

amugs wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:With the north push do winds go with them also? would NNJ be put into a blizzard warning?

IF SO THEY DO IN THEIR AFTERNOON UPDATE - WAIT ON EURO IS THERE THINKING I AM SURE!

thanks mugs

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:34 am

amugs wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:With the north push do winds go with them also? would NNJ be put into a blizzard warning?

IF SO THEY DO IN THEIR AFTERNOON UPDATE - WAIT ON EURO IS THERE THINKING I AM SURE!

Same here I would imagine being we even closer to the shore than NNJ. The winds are already showing stronger but they probably wait to plug that one in until this evening.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:35 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone answer this please do things for Cnj coast look to be getting more snow.

YOU ARE STILL IN THE FOOT RANGE

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:37 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone answer this please do things for Cnj coast look to be getting more snow.

I think there might be a period of mixing, or low ratio snowfall for central NJ coast on S to the tip of NJ. My map refelcts this; however, I think the latest trends still may increase totals due to increased overall QPF. I am seriously close to no longer looking at models, with maybe the exception of some of the hi res, HRRR is a favorite during the storm, at this point. Yes I will look at Euro but honestly, its almost go time. AKA now cast time.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:38 am

amugs wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone answer this please do things for Cnj coast look to be getting more snow.

YOU ARE STILL IN THE FOOT RANGE

I've been in that I thought it would be going up with these model runs

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:39 am

Wow look at that fetch of moisture!!!

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:39 am

sroc4 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone answer this please do things for Cnj coast look to be getting more snow.

I think there might be a period of mixing, or low ratio snowfall for central NJ coast on S to the tip of NJ. My map refelcts this; however, I think the latest trends still may increase totals due to increased overall QPF. I am seriously close to no longer looking at models, with maybe the exception of some of the hi res, HRRR is a favorite during the storm, at this point. Yes I will look at Euro but honestly, its almost go time. AKA now cast time.

Thanks sroc I thought mixing was more of a concern for snj coast. My high today was suppose to be in the mid 30s currently at 26

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:42 am

amugs wrote:Wow look at that fetch of moisture!!!

JC! This has got to overperform IMO, lets hope that East jump does not happen and if it does at least tuck in first and slower to move out as u said mugs if it doesn't we all get half the NAM totals!

Also looks to be coming in much sooner, no longer a sat morning start.

by **jimv45** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:42 am

looking at the CMC it still can't break that wall it seem to go right after Northern NJ.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:43 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone answer this please do things for Cnj coast look to be getting more snow.

I think there might be a period of mixing, or low ratio snowfall for central NJ coast on S to the tip of NJ. My map refelcts this; however, I think the latest trends still may increase totals due to increased overall QPF. I am seriously close to no longer looking at models, with maybe the exception of some of the hi res, HRRR is a favorite during the storm, at this point. Yes I will look at Euro but honestly, its almost go time. AKA now cast time.

Thanks sroc I thought mixing was more of a concern for snj coast. My high today was suppose to be in the mid 30s currently at 26

That very well could be. I guess Im a tad conservative with that area.

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:44 am

jimv45 wrote:looking at the CMC it still can't break that wall it seem to go right after Northern NJ.

jim, I think it sees that E jump of the storm's main energy.If that happens, we are scrooed.And that, Ladies and Gentleman, is the 64,000 dollar nowcast question!!!

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:45 am

Just a refresher folks on Cold air Conveyor Belt/Warm Air Coveyor Belt. This storm will be text book:

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t517-ccb-banding-cold-air-conveyor-belt

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 29 Usa_None_anim

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 29 Usa_None_anim

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