Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:21 am

Frank_Wx wrote:No one get excited about the QPF. Get excited about the TRACK! NAM continues to tuck the low into NJ instead of chasing convection.

Exactly!!!!!! Peeps the qpf will come even if we cut this in half on the NAM we still have a GODZILLA !!!!

by **Vinnydula** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:21 am

When would we have an idea if the Nam is right.?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:21 am

Total qpf (still going)

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 24 NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f39

snow depth

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 24 NAM_SnowDepth_ne_f39

by **Dtone** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:22 am

For what its worth TWC has the 12"+ line up to southern portions of NYC and south shore LI.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:22 am

4-k NAM also on steroids

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 24 Nam4km_ref_neus_10

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:23 am

Frank_Wx wrote:No one get excited about the QPF. Get excited about the TRACK! NAM continues to tuck the low into NJ instead of chasing convection.

no excited yes...but also concerned with living on the coast what that will do to our area...

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:24 am

rb924119 wrote:Guys, it's the NAM for goodness sakes. Northwest bias....I'm not buying it lol

You may not but the euro jumping north says something here and u get the Srefs mean laying North as well.
Aaron Rodgers maybe at the controls, get that?? Last second hail mary's!!
Oh and let's not forget lasy Sunday we jumped 250 miles with our storm in less than 24 hours as all said would be ots.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:25 am

I'm kind of buying the nam just the fact it Been the most consistent and now he's support. Why not buy it storm looks pretty serious to me.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:25 am

sroc4 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

oooh....wow..if that were to verify what would we be looking at feet of snow????

Several!!

THAT CCB DOH!!!!!

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:26 am

Wow

NAM keeps nailing us!

has it ever been this consistent with runs until a day out?

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:26 am

Hello everyone!!!

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 24 NAM-HIRES_QPFtotal_ne_f33

by Guest Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:28 am

It's the NAM. Let's say we take off 1/2 the QPF it outputs. That's still 1.5"+ for the NYC area! I don't trust it!

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:28 am

amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Guys, it's the NAM for goodness sakes. Northwest bias....I'm not buying it lol

You may not but the euro jumping north says something here and u get the Srefs mean laying North as well.
Aaron Rodgers maybe at the controls, get that?? Last second hail mary's!!
Oh and let's not forget lasy Sunday we jumped 250 miles with our storm in less than 24 hours as all said would be ots.

Of course we cannot take the NAM verbatim esp QPF. However I will say that for huge dynamic systems like this it has its uses. Nemo for example. Yes it actually was outputting snow totals of like 60+ inches for area in CT and mass. Obv that didn't happen but what it did, pretty darn well, was sniff out where the CCB was going to be. I think it is onto something regarding the northern track, yes it's NW bias might correct some, but it is seeing an intense CCB band in the vicinity of NYC latitude+\-

by **algae888** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:30 am

we want to get the overrunning precip as far north as possible so when the storm pivots we will be in a good spot for when the ccb snows start. s/r models have been north with the overrunning precip hence the earlier start time

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:30 am

the QPF i've learned from you guys is toss that aside with the NAM but it just keeps hitting us on the model coming north consistent

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:31 am

amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Guys, it's the NAM for goodness sakes. Northwest bias....I'm not buying it lol

You may not but the euro jumping north says something here and u get the Srefs mean laying North as well.
Aaron Rodgers maybe at the controls, get that?? Last second hail mary's!!
Oh and let's not forget lasy Sunday we jumped 250 miles with our storm in less than 24 hours as all said would be ots.

The Euro hasn't actually come north. If you look at where H5 is, it's still progged to exit right off the NC/VA border. That's too far south for many of us to see decent snows. Granted, it will probably work out better for those along and south of I-78, but even that is right on the edge. In order for us to get it good, we need H5 over the Delmarva and moving northeast. With H5 exiting over the NC/VA border, the best deformation banding is going to sit from Philly (if it can in fact extend that far northeastward) back through I-81 in Virginia. Everywhere north and east of there get's the fringe precip. The ONLY guidance to show that H5 comes further north is the NAM/SREFS, which use the same dynamical core, and explains why they are showing the same result. The RPM also uses a very similar dynamical core as those two. Throw in the known northwest and wet biases, and wallah; there's your explanation. So really, as usual, it's the NAM versus the rest of the guidance in my eyes, and I wouldn't exactly bet the farm on the NAM.

by **2004blackwrx** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:31 am

I'm liking the northern push but there is still a sharp cutoff to the North. With this run I still do well, but its so close to missing. I need it a little bit more north for comfort. Unless there is a consensus on more north in the next 24 hours it will definitely be a now cast situation for the Hudson valley.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:32 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Alright, I am done posting images. It's just epic. I will post total qpf when done.

I will keep repeating to myself all day long it's only the NAM it's only the NAM.

Problem is short range models are not that far from NAM and the long range have been trending north. I am not totally sucked in yet but I have had visions of 96 about this storm from the beginning. Expected pretty much zip the day before and then the invisible wall moved from NYC to about 80 miles north of NYC. In the mid HV there were towns that received 1 inch and 20 miles to the south 23 inches. This seems to have had that sharp cutoff somewhere in every run. The big question as we all know is still where will that cutoff be.

by **algae888** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:34 am

cp interesting enough is that the nws is using the 96 blizzard as their #1 analog off of last nights runs

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:37 am

This from a site on CF - Convective Feedback GFS

When specific thresholds in the mass fields are met, convective scheme is triggered and then dumps a large amount of QPF over a grid point - releasing so much latent heat over the grid point that the model is forced to adjust the mass fields by producing a local vertical motion max in the mid troposphere (~ 500mb), a corresponding upper level jet max over the vertical motion max - an intense and small scale vort max in the mid levels (MCV).
The model scales up the mesoscale circulation at mid levels and holds onto it as a real feature for as long as 3 days.
The model can produce precipitation in association with the feature as it tracks along in the flow.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:37 am

algae888 wrote:cp interesting enough is that the nws is using the 96 blizzard as their #1 analog off of last nights runs

Al I was a bit young do not exactly remember that storm, what was it like for our area? Do you think we see close to or over a foot? It seems to look that way IMO, Not buying 30+ inches from NAM but man if it verified even taking 1/3rd or 1/2 off still awesome. Verbatim it would put the entire area at a standstill.

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:41 am

jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:cp interesting enough is that the nws is using the 96 blizzard as their #1 analog off of last nights runs
Al I was a bit young do not exactly remember that storm, what was it like for our area? Do you think we see close to or over a foot? It seems to look that way IMO, Not buying 30+ inches from NAM but man if it verified even taking 1/3rd or 1/2 off still awesome. Verbatim it would put the entire area at a standstill.

all i can remember is was being chest deep in snow and not being able to move lmao

by Guest Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:41 am

Guys take a step back and relax. It's the same Not A Model from last year. Plus the ridge might be getting flattened out from the top still causing this thing to move more East like Doc posted. As Rb said the H5 was not north on the Euro so lets chill out. I'm as optimistic as the rest as is Bernie whose video I just watched, but slow down here!!!

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:43 am

syosnow94 wrote: Guys take a step back and relax. It's the same Not A Model from last year. Plus the ridge might be getting flattened out from the top still causing this thing to move more East like Doc posted. As Rb said the H5 was not north on the Euro so lets chill out. I'm as optimistic as the rest as is Bernie whose video I just watched, but slow down here!!!

No.

by **sabamfa** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:44 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Total qpf (still going)

snow depth

Oh please please. I am in the dark red/orange in NNJ in the first and the white in NNJ in the second.

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:44 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
syosnow94 wrote: Guys take a step back and relax. It's the same Not A Model from last year. Plus the ridge might be getting flattened out from the top still causing this thing to move more East like Doc posted. As Rb said the H5 was not north on the Euro so lets chill out. I'm as optimistic as the rest as is Bernie whose video I just watched, but slow down here!!!
No.

Lmao i'm with you Soul set up or not

by **algae888** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:45 am

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 24 Nam4km_asnow_us_16

4k nam

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 24 Namconus_asnow_us_18

12k

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