Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It?

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:44 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
syosnow94 wrote: Guys take a step back and relax. It's the same Not A Model from last year. Plus the ridge might be getting flattened out from the top still causing this thing to move more East like Doc posted. As Rb said the H5 was not north on the Euro so lets chill out. I'm as optimistic as the rest as is Bernie whose video I just watched, but slow down here!!!
No.

Lmao i'm with you Soul set up or not

by **algae888** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:45 am

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 25 Nam4km_asnow_us_16

4k nam

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 25 Namconus_asnow_us_18

12k

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:45 am

The ridge looks great out west. We can keep bashing the nam all we want but stick to facts its been consitent with this storm and also others are jumping on board. Has anyone looked at this monster of a storm. Pumping moisture from the gulf

by **lglickman1** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:46 am

what do we want to see on the current maps to know if this storm is going to side with the gfs or with the NAM?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:46 am

The 12z RGEM is coming tucked in too so far

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 25 I_nw_EST_2016012212_024

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:47 am

RJB8525 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
syosnow94 wrote: Guys take a step back and relax. It's the same Not A Model from last year. Plus the ridge might be getting flattened out from the top still causing this thing to move more East like Doc posted. As Rb said the H5 was not north on the Euro so lets chill out. I'm as optimistic as the rest as is Bernie whose video I just watched, but slow down here!!!
No.

Lmao i'm with you Soul set up or not

Totally all in it for the win or nothing! I wouldn't count on those insane numbers from the NAM as past has shown but as stated even cut down its still a big storm.

Frank what kind of weight does the wind maps hold on NAM? Overdone too and what did it show? NWS lowered my snowfall by 1 inch in each direction, guess not buying the SR, I think after all the 12z are done things will change for better or worse and then its really nowcast come the evening.

But Frank I am intrigued by your statement that you feel you will be increasing totals : )

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:48 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The 12z RGEM is coming tucked in too so far

Frank you may have to bump up your totals

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:49 am

These SR are too nuts to just ignore, would like to hear word on them from NWS etc. if they factoring them in at all or not. I aint sleeping tonight that's fur sure lol.

by **Radz** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:50 am

sroc4 wrote:
billg315 wrote:This is probably a bad explanation so someone can correct me, but picture a hose or string curved in that shape with a ridge to the left and a trough to the right. If you start to push down on the high part of the hose/string on your left, it will flatten/straighten out the part on your right. With a flatter flow the storm is more likely to get carried out eastward rather than coming up north, and it also is likely to be weaker and more spread out. Ok, now the real mets on here can correct this poor explanation. Lol.

Its a great explantation. Here is a little expantion. First image is the current conditions at 500mb. Currently we have a neutral trough(north to south trough axis) and a beautiful ridge. If you follow the wind barbs you can see the path the LP will take as we move along.

In an ideal world as the 500mb level closes off to form the ULL, upper level low, and the entire ridge/trough complex progresses east, the trough axis begins to tilt into a negative orientation, SE-NW. This would ideally occur as the LP center exits the coast. The 500mb wind barbs would then steer the LP center N before it heads NE.

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In our case however, models have been hinting at a shortwave that will be riding over the top of the ridge over the next 24-36hrs.
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This is where Billg your explanation comes in. As youll see below this short wave "pushes down" on the ridge which in effect leads the NE quadrant of the ridge to "fold over" the top of the trough.(I used the CMC simply to illustrate the point) This tilts the trough axis positive. Instead of a neg tilted trough which brings the LP center S to N or even back NW in some instances(ie: Sandy) the positively tilted trough creates a more progressive flow out ahead of the LP and directs the LP more SW-NE or even WWSW to ENE.
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The timing of where the ULL is, how strong it is, where the surface LP is and how strong it is, and just how much of a positive tilt occurs over the next 24-36hr, or lack thereof will be crucial in determining how far north the precip shield can make it.

Thanks guys- great explanation- much appreciated

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:50 am

The RGEM fights dry air to the north and the surface low never comes up the coast. Does not look great

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:51 am

hopefully when i'm able to later i see more good news but as always i look at the forum on my phone

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:52 am

It is better for NYC area though. Maybe it is still trending.

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:52 am

rb924119 wrote:Guys, it's the NAM for goodness sakes. Northwest bias....I'm not buying it lol

Thank you! I'm not buying into this dopey Not A Model again like I did for Juno.Then it had me over 35 inches and I got 2.Doc's upper wind pattern analysis says it all, I'm not getting more than 2 to 4 inches out of this.Once bitten, twice shy.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:53 am

jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:cp interesting enough is that the nws is using the 96 blizzard as their #1 analog off of last nights runs
Al I was a bit young do not exactly remember that storm, what was it like for our area? Do you think we see close to or over a foot? It seems to look that way IMO, Not buying 30+ inches from NAM but man if it verified even taking 1/3rd or 1/2 off still awesome. Verbatim it would put the entire area at a standstill.

Newark received 29 inches NYC 27 as a round number around all the boroughs. It ranged from 20.2 you know where and you know why to 30 in other parts of NYC.

I've mentioned several times the HV had extreme cutoff. To 33 inches IMBY to 23 inches 40 miles north of me to 1 inch 20 miles north of that. Temperatures were much colder though. In the single digits in HV AND TEENS in NYC through most of the storm. Laguardia received over two feet of snow with about 1.2 inches qpf

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:58 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Alright, I am done posting images. It's just epic. I will post total qpf when done.

I will keep repeating to myself all day long it's only the NAM it's only the NAM.

Problem is short range models are not that far from NAM and the long range have been trending north. I am not totally sucked in yet but I have had visions of 96 about this storm from the beginning. Expected pretty much zip the day before and then the invisible wall moved from NYC to about 80 miles north of NYC. In the mid HV there were towns that received 1 inch and 20 miles to the south 23 inches. This seems to have had that sharp cutoff somewhere in every run. The big question as we all know is still where will that cutoff be.

CP, don't buy this Not A Model prediction. We bought into it for Juno when it said we would get 35 inches and we wound up with two.rb has this pegged and read Doc's upper air pattern analysis.This storm is heading out to far S and E of the benchmark to affect us.Expect 2 and be happy with 4.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:58 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The RGEM fights dry air to the north and the surface low never comes up the coast. Does not look great

Honestly I did need to hear this to bring me back to realty. For the HV especially this is still not great odds for a big storm. I will keep repeating that and if I get surprised on the upside all the better.

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:00 am

RGEM sees the movement to S and E of the benchmark.NAM are clown maps.NWS steadfast for our area, 2 to 4.

Hey CP, maybe the new owner of my old house in Mahwah will let me sleep in my van in her driveway for the storm.They may get 8 to 12 down there.Go figure!LOL!

by Snowfall Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:02 am

Don't think the mets are gonna fail again so I believe

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:07 am

Frank_Wx wrote:It is better for NYC area though. Maybe it is still trending.

If you look at initialization with NAM vs RGEM NAM depicts much more closley to current conditions at H5. Trough on the RGEM looks like its much narrower than current conditions.
01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 25 500mb_sf

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 25 500mb_sf

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 25 <a href=

01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 25 Nam_z510

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01/23/16 Storm Update #5 - It Is What It Is, Or Is It? - Page 25 Rgem_u10

by **hyde345** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:10 am

Definitely lesser amounts in HV. Still looking like c-2 from 84 north.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:14 am

I am hearing the RGEM looks similar to the 4km NAM..?

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:18 am

hyde345 wrote:Definitely lesser amounts in HV. Still looking like c-2 from 84 north.

This is not our storm hyde.I'm 2 to 4 a little south of you.The more easterly than north movement is ruining it for us in the HV.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:20 am

Bernie Rayno just said (twitter) to use the divide NAM in half rule. Which he has used before. That would still be a big hit especially around NYC and south.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:20 am

SoulSingMG wrote:I am hearing the RGEM looks similar to the 4km NAM..?

Not sure why the 12z RGEM has not loaded at all on wxbell, so I cannot get the maps. Unless someone knows somewhere else it can be found.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:21 am

Okay now the 12z RGEM on wxbell is started to load, probably will take a while.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:23 am

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:I am hearing the RGEM looks similar to the 4km NAM..?

Not sure why the 12z RGEM has not loaded at all on wxbell, so I cannot get the maps. Unless someone knows somewhere else it can be found.

I think it just initialized there. I actually posted the 6z. I am just realizing that now.

by dsvinos Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:23 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:No one get excited about the QPF. Get excited about the TRACK! NAM continues to tuck the low into NJ instead of chasing convection.

no excited yes...but also concerned with living on the coast what that will do to our area...

I am concerned at this point too. I have friends that live by you and I'm a realtor so I travel down the Hazlet/Middletown area quite often and I would hate to see anyone suffer anymore damage after Sandy. While I'm excited to see all of the totals rise I'm worried about everyone's safety. I'm going to have to help my husband with snow removal with all of this! I'm hopeful that the NAM QPF is overdone a bit.

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