Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:55 am

The SCI (snow confidence index) has been updated on the home page. The 29th-30th has the potential to deliver a light snowfall event depending on whether or not the advertised trough can go from positively to neutral tilted. Unfortunately there is a "kicker" in the upper Midwest preventing the trough from amplifying and going neutral. But we'll see...

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:05 am

Do we know were we may finish this month considering it wasn't much of a torch in temp dept

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:12 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Do we know were we may finish this month considering it wasn't much of a torch in temp dept

The month will end well above normal. Tomorrow it's going to be near 60 degrees. Most are running at least +3 or higher.

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 8 YearTDeptNRCC

January 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 8 YearTDeptNRCC

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:22 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Do we know were we may finish this month considering it wasn't much of a torch in temp dept

Skins this month is in the top 15 warmest January's at all 3 recording stations in NYC Now. I posted the stats on the weather stats thread yesterday. If that isn't a torch then we have to redefine the term.

If you look at The normal January temperatures I posted in there for seven different sites you'll see what the problem is. People don't seem to judge that as normal anymore because it is been above normal for so many months in a row now.

by **billg315** Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:24 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Do we know were we may finish this month considering it wasn't much of a torch in temp dept

Skins this month is in the top 15 warmest January's at all 3 recording stations in NYC Now. I posted the stats on the weather stats thread yesterday. If that isn't a torch then we have to redefine the term.

If you look at The normal January temperatures I posted in there for seven different sites you'll see what the problem is. People don't seem to judge that as normal anymore because it is been above normal for so many months in a row now.

CP, I'm not trying to get you riled up, but check out my last post I just put up in the Jan 22-24 storm thread in response to the rain totals measured in CPK from yesterday's storm. It is . . . ironic.

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 24, 2017 12:16 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Do we know were we may finish this month considering it wasn't much of a torch in temp dept

Skins this month is in the top 15 warmest January's at all 3 recording stations in NYC Now. I posted the stats on the weather stats thread yesterday. If that isn't a torch then we have to redefine the term.

If you look at The normal January temperatures I posted in there for seven different sites you'll see what the problem is. People don't seem to judge that as normal anymore because it is been above normal for so many months in a row now.

Thanks CP for the info I guess so I'm forgetting what it's suppose to feel like.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:25 am

The SCI for the potential 29th-30th remains at 20% this morning. Reminder that the Snow Confidence Index is a confidence level percentage of how I feel about at least 1" of snow accumulating in Central Park, NY for a give storm event. It can be found on the home page and is updated once a day. Models are advertising a potent upper level trough during that time, but it looks like the Baroclinic Zone will be too far S&E and there will be no southern energy to phase with the northern energy. Some models hint at a norlun trough / inverted trough type feature but those type of events don't get sorted out until 24 to 48 hours prior.

by **docstox12** Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:51 am

33.8, 94%, 29.35 R

4 inches of concrete, partly cloudy, windy.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:01 am

docstox12 wrote:33.8, 94%, 29.35 R

4 inches of concrete, partly cloudy, windy.

Doc I got 2.1 inches last night from snow that started at 7:30 and ended around 11:00.

Puts me at 6.4 total for the storm, 4.3 inches of sleet and 2.1 of snow. After yesterday afternoons rain and freezing rain it's now compressed into 4.8 inches of as you say concrete this morning. Even with the next two days in the 40's this isn't going anywhere for awhile.

Season total now 25.4 already beat last years pathetic 24.9

by Guest Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:35 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Do we know were we may finish this month considering it wasn't much of a torch in temp dept

The month will end well above normal. Tomorrow it's going to be near 60 degrees. Most are running at least +3 or higher.

Near 60?!?! Dayummm... Wed and Thurs. we're forecasted to top 40 and after that, it's nothing higher than mid 30s.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:41 am

TheAresian wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Do we know were we may finish this month considering it wasn't much of a torch in temp dept

The month will end well above normal. Tomorrow it's going to be near 60 degrees. Most are running at least +3 or higher.

Near 60?!?! Dayummm... Wed and Thurs. we're forecasted to top 40 and after that, it's nothing higher than mid 30s.

The normal highs and lows in Binghamton this time of year is 29/15.

Even if you're in the mid 30's that's 6 degrees above the normal high.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:44 am

Aresian I threw in Binghamton for your comparative purposes but as you can see from the list this Jjanuary has been well above normal for everyone in our area when you compare to what the temperatures should be this time of year.

Normal temperatures this time of year should be.

For the 30 year averages 1981-2010 the Normal is
38/27 in NYC
35/15 in the HV (Poughkeepsie)
38/23 in LI (Islip)
37/23 in Bridgeport
39/23 in Trenton
33/18 in Scranton
29/15 in Binghamton

by Guest Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:49 am

I agree that statistically we're still significantly above normal. However, from a "feel" standpoint, mid 30s still seems wintery. 60 here is mid April weather. Also, where do you go to get your statistics? It seems like every place I check has different numbers for the same inquiry.

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:04 am

THE SUN IS OUT!!! 40* winds 10 mph

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:11 pm

Wow no posts since 1:53?

This is called "disappointing storm that could have been if things were just a tad different" hangover.

by **dad4twoboys** Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:16 pm

by **algae888** Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:01 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Wow no posts since 1:53?

This is called "disappointing storm that could have been if things were just a tad different" hangover.

Yes plus there's nothing to track for at least 7 days the last few Winters have been trying my patience

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:47 pm

So no need to check back for 7 days? Check back around the 1st or 2nd?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:56 am

jmanley32 wrote:So no need to check back for 7 days? Check back around the 1st or 2nd?

How's your mother in law Jman? I'm praying she's taken a turn for the better?

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:25 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So no need to check back for 7 days? Check back around the 1st or 2nd?

How's your mother in law Jman? I'm praying she's taken a turn for the better?

Will post in banter.

by **docstox12** Thu Jan 26, 2017 6:26 am

33.8, 94% 29.16 F

Got a nice sleet pack out there.Hey, CP, just down the road apiece in Mahwah there is nothing on the ground,LOL.Glad I'm up here for sure!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 26, 2017 8:33 am

SCI updated on the homepage. I removed January 29th-30th and replaced it with February 1st-2nd as models seem bullish on an Alberta Clipper possibly strengthening off the coast.

by **devsman** Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:19 am

Frank_Wx wrote:SCI updated on the homepage. I removed January 29th-30th and replaced it with February 1st-2nd as models seem bullish on an Alberta Clipper possibly strengthening off the coast.

Groundhog Day storm! Called it! cheers

by **mako460** Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:53 am

my son's birthday. Even better!

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:25 am

had some rain showers this morning, cleared up now . 42*

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:10 am

I wouldnt call the 30th time frame a 0% chance at no snow just yet. Certainlky not a big threat, but snow flakes flying...its not 0% just yet. GFS still trying with the NT

by **algae888** Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:18 am

sroc4 wrote:I wouldnt call the 30th time frame a 0% chance at no snow just yet. Certainlky not a big threat, but snow flakes flying...its not 0% just yet. GFS still trying with the NT

Scott the GFS actually pops a low off the Mid-Atlantic and brushes are area with one to two inches of snow

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