January 2017 Observations & Discussions

I wouldnt call the 30th time frame a 0% chance at no snow just yet.  Certainlky not a big threat, but snow flakes flying...its not 0% just yet. GFS still trying with the NT

sroc4 wrote:I wouldnt call the 30th time frame a 0% chance at no snow just yet.  Certainlky not a big threat, but snow flakes flying...its not 0% just yet.  GFS still trying with the NT

Scott the GFS actually pops a low off the Mid-Atlantic and brushes are area with one to two inches of snow

algae888 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:I wouldnt call the 30th time frame a 0% chance at no snow just yet.  Certainlky not a big threat, but snow flakes flying...its not 0% just yet.  GFS still trying with the NT

Scott the GFS actually pops a low off the Mid-Atlantic and brushes are area with one to two inches of snow

Exactly Al. It actually looks like precip via a Norlun Trough that trys to reach back into the area.

sroc4 wrote:I wouldnt call the 30th time frame a 0% chance at no snow just yet.  Certainlky not a big threat, but snow flakes flying...its not 0% just yet.  GFS still trying with the NT

Definitely not 0%. I would still leave it at 20%. But since my confidence for the 1st-2nd is higher than 29th-30th, it was replaced

There are so many vorts models are having a hard time which ones to Key on. CMC has the Norlan trough but is Keying the 2nd system that Frank is talking about around the 1st or 2nd of February. Both the GFS in the CMC have the swfe in around 10 days.

Feb we rock - Jan 29-30 mood flakes get us ready.

Again the Japan east Coast Storm Theory has been activated - a major storm hitting the east coast of Japan usually results in an east coast storm 10-15 days later depending on the H5 BUT we had this for our Jan 7th storm - verified very nicely.

Jim Witt harping on teh 8-9 time frame for this. Also said we are seeing what he forecasted in the summer of the ice box for February - we are starting our alignment with Uranus. He said 2 -3 week of Feb could be the pinnacle.
talked to a friend of mine from another board who is VERy good friends with him. Spoke to him yesterday.

He had this month at plus 2.5 for NYC Metro - will be above but not bad from LR standpoint.

We need all these vorst to clear the h out of here to get one to be able to mature for us. Looks like 2nd week of Feb again.

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:I wouldnt call the 30th time frame a 0% chance at no snow just yet.  Certainlky not a big threat, but snow flakes flying...its not 0% just yet.  GFS still trying with the NT

Definitely not 0%. I would still leave it at 20%. But since my confidence for the 1st-2nd is higher than 29th-30th, it was replaced

Any way to do multiple threats?

Hey guys wrote something in off topic general banter I'd appreciate you guys to look at and if anyone has some insight please respond.

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:I wouldnt call the 30th time frame a 0% chance at no snow just yet.  Certainlky not a big threat, but snow flakes flying...its not 0% just yet.  GFS still trying with the NT

Definitely not 0%. I would still leave it at 20%. But since my confidence for the 1st-2nd is higher than 29th-30th, it was replaced

Any way to do multiple threats?

Yes sir. Check it out.

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:I wouldnt call the 30th time frame a 0% chance at no snow just yet.  Certainlky not a big threat, but snow flakes flying...its not 0% just yet.  GFS still trying with the NT

Definitely not 0%. I would still leave it at 20%. But since my confidence for the 1st-2nd is higher than 29th-30th, it was replaced

Any way to do multiple threats?

Yes sir. Check it out.

SWEET!!

47.8, 93%, 29.08 F

Winds picked up considerably the last hour, howling now.

52* and very windy here as well.

49* sustained winds at 20 mph with gusts hitting 26 it was sunny but looks like clouds are on the horizon

37 and FROPA/LE rain showers here in Binghamton. An occasional flake is mixed in

It's so windy lights flying signs flipping around. Where is this coming from yet the 2nd half of noreaster had nothing here lol. Like we said when there's no forecast of winds they verify. Though largly for the noreaster they did verify.

jmanley32 wrote:It's so windy lights flying signs flipping around. Where is this coming from yet the 2nd half of noreaster had nothing here lol. Like we said when there's no forecast of winds they verify. Though largly for the noreaster they did verify.

Wind was in the forecast..20-30 mph or so. Maybe we're exceeding that. I notice the times wind forecast actually verify is with a cold front passing..which I never gave much thought before but kinda makes sense.

Dtone wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:It's so windy lights flying signs flipping around. Where is this coming from yet the 2nd half of noreaster had nothing here lol. Like we said when there's no forecast of winds they verify. Though largly for the noreaster they did verify.

Wind was in the forecast..20-30 mph or so. Maybe we're exceeding that. I notice the times wind forecast actually verify is with a cold front passing..which I never gave much thought before but kinda makes sense.

for what ever reason nw/w winds verify more often than ne/e winds here in lower Westchester esp if your not right on the shore. that's been my experience over the years

after having a high of 57 *temps are dropping cur its 46 *with winds out of the w 23mph with gust up to 36 mph looks like we are finally heading into a winter pattern with snow chances on wed i am hearing

algae888 wrote:

Dtone wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:It's so windy lights flying signs flipping around. Where is this coming from yet the 2nd half of noreaster had nothing here lol. Like we said when there's no forecast of winds they verify. Though largly for the noreaster they did verify.

Wind was in the forecast..20-30 mph or so. Maybe we're exceeding that. I notice the times wind forecast actually verify is with a cold front passing..which I never gave much thought before but kinda makes sense.

for what ever reason nw/w winds verify more often than ne/e winds here in lower Westchester esp if your not right on the shore. that's been my experience over the years

Same thing here in Bergen County. Winds rarely verify unless from the west...

Anytime I open the Forum page now, I get a twinge of anxiety the split second before I see the confidence level.

I hope you know what you got yourself into Frank. You're going to make or break a lot of mornings depending what direction those percentages go.

I love the concept though.

Haha, I'll only update once a day in the morning. Save the anxiety for the morning

Glad you like the idea though.

The percentage thing is a great idea I like it.

Frank_Wx wrote:Haha, I'll only update once a day in the morning. Save the anxiety for the morning

Glad you like the idea though.

It's GREAT Frank.Reminds of the days 20-30 years ago when I was a frequent patron of "the sport of Kings" at the Meadowlands Racetrack.Your 20% level would be an 8 to 1 shot, 30% would be 7 to 1,lol.There was this Vegas odds maker, Nick the Greek.You could be "Frank the Italian" oddsmaker for snow,lol.

33.2, 77%, 29.30 R. Breezy

39° 29.50 63% humidity 28° dewpiint and so far for the month 6.07 inches of rain.

33, 79%, 29.35 R

2 to 3 inches of sleetpack.

snow flurrriessssssssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!! What a wonderful surprise at 38* tis morning.

Doc speaking of the track take Pinocchio - with that snoze how can you lose!

I might be losing my mind but I think I see a few flakes of snow falling in my back yard.